Ongoing Middle East conflict and elevated maritime security risks continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with independent trackers reporting daily transits averaging just 3–7 vessels in recent days versus a pre-crisis baseline near 85–125. War-risk insurance premiums remain around 40 times normal levels, prompting major carriers to reroute or avoid the chokepoint entirely while hundreds of vessels stay stranded in the Gulf. This environment supports the tight contest between the 20–24 and sub-20 weekly bins, as sporadic dark-ship movements and limited escorted oil flows introduce variability without restoring broader commercial volumes. Diplomatic talks at the UN and pipeline restarts offer potential upside catalysts, yet persistent threats and selective access keep aggregate counts firmly in the low-20s range or below for the week of September 21.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 21?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 21?
20-24 38%
<20 30%
25-29 17%
35-39 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
<20
33%
20-24
38%
25-29
17%
30-34
8%
35-39
14%
40+
6%
20-24 38%
<20 30%
25-29 17%
35-39 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
<20
$432 Vol.
33%
20-24
$372 Vol.
38%
25-29
$70 Vol.
17%
30-34
$60 Vol.
8%
35-39
$183 Vol.
14%
40+
$80 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 21, 2026, through September 27, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing Middle East conflict and elevated maritime security risks continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with independent trackers reporting daily transits averaging just 3–7 vessels in recent days versus a pre-crisis baseline near 85–125. War-risk insurance premiums remain around 40 times normal levels, prompting major carriers to reroute or avoid the chokepoint entirely while hundreds of vessels stay stranded in the Gulf. This environment supports the tight contest between the 20–24 and sub-20 weekly bins, as sporadic dark-ship movements and limited escorted oil flows introduce variability without restoring broader commercial volumes. Diplomatic talks at the UN and pipeline restarts offer potential upside catalysts, yet persistent threats and selective access keep aggregate counts firmly in the low-20s range or below for the week of September 21.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 21, 2026, through September 27, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$1,197End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 21, 2026, through September 27, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing Middle East conflict and elevated maritime security risks continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with independent trackers reporting daily transits averaging just 3–7 vessels in recent days versus a pre-crisis baseline near 85–125. War-risk insurance premiums remain around 40 times normal levels, prompting major carriers to reroute or avoid the chokepoint entirely while hundreds of vessels stay stranded in the Gulf. This environment supports the tight contest between the 20–24 and sub-20 weekly bins, as sporadic dark-ship movements and limited escorted oil flows introduce variability without restoring broader commercial volumes. Diplomatic talks at the UN and pipeline restarts offer potential upside catalysts, yet persistent threats and selective access keep aggregate counts firmly in the low-20s range or below for the week of September 21.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 21, 2026, through September 27, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$1,197End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Middle East conflict and elevated maritime security risks continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with independent trackers reporting daily transits averaging just 3–7 vessels in recent days versus a pre-crisis baseline near 85–125. War-risk insurance premiums remain around 40 times normal levels, prompting major carriers to reroute or avoid the chokepoint entirely while hundreds of vessels stay stranded in the Gulf. This environment supports the tight contest between the 20–24 and sub-20 weekly bins, as sporadic dark-ship movements and limited escorted oil flows introduce variability without restoring broader commercial volumes. Diplomatic talks at the UN and pipeline restarts offer potential upside catalysts, yet persistent threats and selective access keep aggregate counts firmly in the low-20s range or below for the week of September 21.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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