Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and active naval blockade continue to constrain Strait of Hormuz transits, with recent daily counts averaging just 3-12 vessels amid attacks, route restrictions to Iranian corridors, and widespread AIS-dark movements. This environment has kept weekly totals well below the pre-conflict benchmark of roughly 850-1,000 ships, producing the current tight clustering of implied probabilities around the 20-34 ship range for the week of September 28. Diplomatic signals from UNGA talks on September 23 introduce the main near-term swing factor, as any verified easing of enforcement or sanctions relief could lift volumes toward the upper end of that band, while renewed strikes or stricter IRGC controls would reinforce the lower tail. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of these contested security and policy dynamics rather than baseline historical flows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28?
30-34 28%
25-29 23%
20-24 22%
40+ 16%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<20
13%
20-24
22%
25-29
23%
30-34
28%
35-39
4%
40+
16%
30-34 28%
25-29 23%
20-24 22%
40+ 16%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<20
$37 Vol.
13%
20-24
$61 Vol.
22%
25-29
$45 Vol.
23%
30-34
$30 Vol.
28%
35-39
$36 Vol.
4%
40+
$32 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and active naval blockade continue to constrain Strait of Hormuz transits, with recent daily counts averaging just 3-12 vessels amid attacks, route restrictions to Iranian corridors, and widespread AIS-dark movements. This environment has kept weekly totals well below the pre-conflict benchmark of roughly 850-1,000 ships, producing the current tight clustering of implied probabilities around the 20-34 ship range for the week of September 28. Diplomatic signals from UNGA talks on September 23 introduce the main near-term swing factor, as any verified easing of enforcement or sanctions relief could lift volumes toward the upper end of that band, while renewed strikes or stricter IRGC controls would reinforce the lower tail. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of these contested security and policy dynamics rather than baseline historical flows.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$241End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and active naval blockade continue to constrain Strait of Hormuz transits, with recent daily counts averaging just 3-12 vessels amid attacks, route restrictions to Iranian corridors, and widespread AIS-dark movements. This environment has kept weekly totals well below the pre-conflict benchmark of roughly 850-1,000 ships, producing the current tight clustering of implied probabilities around the 20-34 ship range for the week of September 28. Diplomatic signals from UNGA talks on September 23 introduce the main near-term swing factor, as any verified easing of enforcement or sanctions relief could lift volumes toward the upper end of that band, while renewed strikes or stricter IRGC controls would reinforce the lower tail. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of these contested security and policy dynamics rather than baseline historical flows.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$241End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and active naval blockade continue to constrain Strait of Hormuz transits, with recent daily counts averaging just 3-12 vessels amid attacks, route restrictions to Iranian corridors, and widespread AIS-dark movements. This environment has kept weekly totals well below the pre-conflict benchmark of roughly 850-1,000 ships, producing the current tight clustering of implied probabilities around the 20-34 ship range for the week of September 28. Diplomatic signals from UNGA talks on September 23 introduce the main near-term swing factor, as any verified easing of enforcement or sanctions relief could lift volumes toward the upper end of that band, while renewed strikes or stricter IRGC controls would reinforce the lower tail. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of these contested security and policy dynamics rather than baseline historical flows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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