Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan remains imprisoned at Adiala Jail under convictions in the Al-Qadir Trust and Toshakhana cases, with appeals pending before the Islamabad High Court and sentence-suspension requests rejected earlier in 2026. The government maintains that any relief must occur through the judicial process rather than political negotiation, while the military establishment continues to view Khan as a significant political challenger. Recent Supreme Court proceedings on medical transfer resulted in a brief hospital visit followed by his prompt return to prison after doctors declared him fit, and planned PTI protests have not altered the legal timeline. These factors, combined with the short window until the end of 2026, underpin traders’ strong consensus against release by the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
9% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is released from prison by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, Imran Khan will be considered to have been released from prison only if he is not physically held in any Pakistani detention facility, including any prison, remand facility, or other place of formal custody, for a continuous period of at least 24 hours. A temporary release for medical treatment, a release on bail that is contingent on return to custody, or a release from one case while remaining in custody under another will not qualify. Release under house arrest, with travel restrictions, or with other non-custodial conditions following release will not prevent this market from resolving to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Pakistan or Imran Khan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan remains imprisoned at Adiala Jail under convictions in the Al-Qadir Trust and Toshakhana cases, with appeals pending before the Islamabad High Court and sentence-suspension requests rejected earlier in 2026. The government maintains that any relief must occur through the judicial process rather than political negotiation, while the military establishment continues to view Khan as a significant political challenger. Recent Supreme Court proceedings on medical transfer resulted in a brief hospital visit followed by his prompt return to prison after doctors declared him fit, and planned PTI protests have not altered the legal timeline. These factors, combined with the short window until the end of 2026, underpin traders’ strong consensus against release by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is released from prison by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, Imran Khan will be considered to have been released from prison only if he is not physically held in any Pakistani detention facility, including any prison, remand facility, or other place of formal custody, for a continuous period of at least 24 hours. A temporary release for medical treatment, a release on bail that is contingent on return to custody, or a release from one case while remaining in custody under another will not qualify. Release under house arrest, with travel restrictions, or with other non-custodial conditions following release will not prevent this market from resolving to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Pakistan or Imran Khan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For purposes of this market, Imran Khan will be considered to have been released from prison only if he is not physically held in any Pakistani detention facility, including any prison, remand facility, or other place of formal custody, for a continuous period of at least 24 hours. A temporary release for medical treatment, a release on bail that is contingent on return to custody, or a release from one case while remaining in custody under another will not qualify. Release under house arrest, with travel restrictions, or with other non-custodial conditions following release will not prevent this market from resolving to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Pakistan or Imran Khan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 6, 2026, 6:06 PM ET
Volume
$2,458End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is released from prison by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, Imran Khan will be considered to have been released from prison only if he is not physically held in any Pakistani detention facility, including any prison, remand facility, or other place of formal custody, for a continuous period of at least 24 hours. A temporary release for medical treatment, a release on bail that is contingent on return to custody, or a release from one case while remaining in custody under another will not qualify. Release under house arrest, with travel restrictions, or with other non-custodial conditions following release will not prevent this market from resolving to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Pakistan or Imran Khan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan remains imprisoned at Adiala Jail under convictions in the Al-Qadir Trust and Toshakhana cases, with appeals pending before the Islamabad High Court and sentence-suspension requests rejected earlier in 2026. The government maintains that any relief must occur through the judicial process rather than political negotiation, while the military establishment continues to view Khan as a significant political challenger. Recent Supreme Court proceedings on medical transfer resulted in a brief hospital visit followed by his prompt return to prison after doctors declared him fit, and planned PTI protests have not altered the legal timeline. These factors, combined with the short window until the end of 2026, underpin traders’ strong consensus against release by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is released from prison by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, Imran Khan will be considered to have been released from prison only if he is not physically held in any Pakistani detention facility, including any prison, remand facility, or other place of formal custody, for a continuous period of at least 24 hours. A temporary release for medical treatment, a release on bail that is contingent on return to custody, or a release from one case while remaining in custody under another will not qualify. Release under house arrest, with travel restrictions, or with other non-custodial conditions following release will not prevent this market from resolving to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Pakistan or Imran Khan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For purposes of this market, Imran Khan will be considered to have been released from prison only if he is not physically held in any Pakistani detention facility, including any prison, remand facility, or other place of formal custody, for a continuous period of at least 24 hours. A temporary release for medical treatment, a release on bail that is contingent on return to custody, or a release from one case while remaining in custody under another will not qualify. Release under house arrest, with travel restrictions, or with other non-custodial conditions following release will not prevent this market from resolving to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Pakistan or Imran Khan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,458End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan remains imprisoned at Adiala Jail under convictions in the Al-Qadir Trust and Toshakhana cases, with appeals pending before the Islamabad High Court and sentence-suspension requests rejected earlier in 2026. The government maintains that any relief must occur through the judicial process rather than political negotiation, while the military establishment continues to view Khan as a significant political challenger. Recent Supreme Court proceedings on medical transfer resulted in a brief hospital visit followed by his prompt return to prison after doctors declared him fit, and planned PTI protests have not altered the legal timeline. These factors, combined with the short window until the end of 2026, underpin traders’ strong consensus against release by the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions