Recent monthly CPI readings, including the August 2026 print of 4.82% driven by food inflation near 6% and energy costs, combined with RBI and professional forecaster projections of 5.0% for fiscal 2026-27, underpin the 90.5% market-implied odds for annual inflation averaging 4.50% or higher. Persistent pressures from Middle East-related crude spikes, rupee weakness, and supply-side factors have shifted the trajectory upward from sub-4% levels earlier in the year, with core measures also firming modestly. Traders price in these dynamics as durable for the full year, though a sharp reversal in global oil prices, stronger monsoon outcomes, or aggressive policy interventions could still pull the average below the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.50%+ 91%
3.75% to 4.49% 4.4%
<0.75% 1.6%
3.00% to 3.74% 1.4%
$85,789 Vol.
$85,789 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
2%
0.75% to 1.49%
<1%
1.50% to 2.24%
1%
2.25% to 2.99%
<1%
3.00% to 3.74%
1%
3.75% to 4.49%
4%
4.50%+
91%
4.50%+ 91%
3.75% to 4.49% 4.4%
<0.75% 1.6%
3.00% to 3.74% 1.4%
$85,789 Vol.
$85,789 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
$2,328 Vol.
2%
0.75% to 1.49%
$1,545 Vol.
<1%
1.50% to 2.24%
$1,605 Vol.
1%
2.25% to 2.99%
$25,481 Vol.
<1%
3.00% to 3.74%
$2,410 Vol.
1%
3.75% to 4.49%
$31,997 Vol.
4%
4.50%+
$20,423 Vol.
91%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent monthly CPI readings, including the August 2026 print of 4.82% driven by food inflation near 6% and energy costs, combined with RBI and professional forecaster projections of 5.0% for fiscal 2026-27, underpin the 90.5% market-implied odds for annual inflation averaging 4.50% or higher. Persistent pressures from Middle East-related crude spikes, rupee weakness, and supply-side factors have shifted the trajectory upward from sub-4% levels earlier in the year, with core measures also firming modestly. Traders price in these dynamics as durable for the full year, though a sharp reversal in global oil prices, stronger monsoon outcomes, or aggressive policy interventions could still pull the average below the threshold.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$85,789End Date
Jan 13, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent monthly CPI readings, including the August 2026 print of 4.82% driven by food inflation near 6% and energy costs, combined with RBI and professional forecaster projections of 5.0% for fiscal 2026-27, underpin the 90.5% market-implied odds for annual inflation averaging 4.50% or higher. Persistent pressures from Middle East-related crude spikes, rupee weakness, and supply-side factors have shifted the trajectory upward from sub-4% levels earlier in the year, with core measures also firming modestly. Traders price in these dynamics as durable for the full year, though a sharp reversal in global oil prices, stronger monsoon outcomes, or aggressive policy interventions could still pull the average below the threshold.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$85,789End Date
Jan 13, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent monthly CPI readings, including the August 2026 print of 4.82% driven by food inflation near 6% and energy costs, combined with RBI and professional forecaster projections of 5.0% for fiscal 2026-27, underpin the 90.5% market-implied odds for annual inflation averaging 4.50% or higher. Persistent pressures from Middle East-related crude spikes, rupee weakness, and supply-side factors have shifted the trajectory upward from sub-4% levels earlier in the year, with core measures also firming modestly. Traders price in these dynamics as durable for the full year, though a sharp reversal in global oil prices, stronger monsoon outcomes, or aggressive policy interventions could still pull the average below the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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