Skip to main content
icon for Iran leadership change by...?
Politics·Mojtaba

Iran leadership change by...?

icon for Iran leadership change by...?
Politics·Mojtaba

Iran leadership change by...?

$22,467,209 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$22,467,209 Vol.

Polymarket

August 31

$652,102 Vol.

3%

September 30

$329,296 Vol.

6%

December 31

$3,748,705 Vol.

16%

June 30, 2027

$190,729 Vol.

23%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes that also killed other senior officials.** The younger Khamenei, selected amid wartime conditions, has maintained a low public profile with reports of injuries, fueling speculation about his health and effective authority. Power appears concentrated with the IRGC while President Masoud Pezeshkian continues in a subordinate role, and Tehran has emphasized leadership unity against external narratives of division. Trader assessments of near-term change reflect the post-succession consolidation, persistent external military and sanctions pressure under the Trump administration, economic strains, and limited visible elite fractures or public challenges. Longer-term probabilities incorporate constitutional succession mechanisms via the Assembly of Experts, potential health or political triggers, and risks of further escalation or negotiated stabilization through mid-2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$22,467,209
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes that also killed other senior officials.** The younger Khamenei, selected amid wartime conditions, has maintained a low public profile with reports of injuries, fueling speculation about his health and effective authority. Power appears concentrated with the IRGC while President Masoud Pezeshkian continues in a subordinate role, and Tehran has emphasized leadership unity against external narratives of division. Trader assessments of near-term change reflect the post-succession consolidation, persistent external military and sanctions pressure under the Trump administration, economic strains, and limited visible elite fractures or public challenges. Longer-term probabilities incorporate constitutional succession mechanisms via the Assembly of Experts, potential health or political triggers, and risks of further escalation or negotiated stabilization through mid-2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$22,467,209
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Related

icon for Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?

Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?

4%
icon for US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

4%
icon for Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?

9%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran leadership change by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30, 2027" at 23%, followed by "December 31" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran leadership change by...?" has generated $22.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran leadership change by...?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran leadership change by...?" is "June 30, 2027" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "December 31" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran leadership change by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.