**The high market-implied probability favoring “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before 2027 stems primarily from the slow pace of Ontario’s criminal justice system and the early procedural stage of the single active charge.** Aguiar, a Toronto content creator and dating coach known online as Justin Marc, was arrested November 20, 2025, and charged with one count of sexual assault tied to an alleged August 2024 incident; his initial court appearance occurred January 14, 2026. Prior similar charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, and no trial date has been set as of mid-2026. Canadian sexual assault cases frequently face lengthy delays due to court backlogs, disclosure processes, and scheduling. The resolution criteria further tilt toward “No” by treating dismissals, withdrawn charges, or non-guilt pleas as negative outcomes, reinforcing trader consensus around extended timelines and procedural uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJustin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?
Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?
31% chance
$52,562 Vol.
$52,562 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
31% chance
$52,562 Vol.
$52,562 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**The high market-implied probability favoring “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before 2027 stems primarily from the slow pace of Ontario’s criminal justice system and the early procedural stage of the single active charge.** Aguiar, a Toronto content creator and dating coach known online as Justin Marc, was arrested November 20, 2025, and charged with one count of sexual assault tied to an alleged August 2024 incident; his initial court appearance occurred January 14, 2026. Prior similar charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, and no trial date has been set as of mid-2026. Canadian sexual assault cases frequently face lengthy delays due to court backlogs, disclosure processes, and scheduling. The resolution criteria further tilt toward “No” by treating dismissals, withdrawn charges, or non-guilt pleas as negative outcomes, reinforcing trader consensus around extended timelines and procedural uncertainty.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$52,562End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**The high market-implied probability favoring “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before 2027 stems primarily from the slow pace of Ontario’s criminal justice system and the early procedural stage of the single active charge.** Aguiar, a Toronto content creator and dating coach known online as Justin Marc, was arrested November 20, 2025, and charged with one count of sexual assault tied to an alleged August 2024 incident; his initial court appearance occurred January 14, 2026. Prior similar charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, and no trial date has been set as of mid-2026. Canadian sexual assault cases frequently face lengthy delays due to court backlogs, disclosure processes, and scheduling. The resolution criteria further tilt toward “No” by treating dismissals, withdrawn charges, or non-guilt pleas as negative outcomes, reinforcing trader consensus around extended timelines and procedural uncertainty.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$52,562End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The high market-implied probability favoring “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before 2027 stems primarily from the slow pace of Ontario’s criminal justice system and the early procedural stage of the single active charge.** Aguiar, a Toronto content creator and dating coach known online as Justin Marc, was arrested November 20, 2025, and charged with one count of sexual assault tied to an alleged August 2024 incident; his initial court appearance occurred January 14, 2026. Prior similar charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, and no trial date has been set as of mid-2026. Canadian sexual assault cases frequently face lengthy delays due to court backlogs, disclosure processes, and scheduling. The resolution criteria further tilt toward “No” by treating dismissals, withdrawn charges, or non-guilt pleas as negative outcomes, reinforcing trader consensus around extended timelines and procedural uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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