The recent arrest and single charge against Toronto dating coach Justin Aguiar for an August 2024 incident has not yet produced a conviction, supporting the 58% market-implied odds on “No.” Aguiar, known online as “Drunk Justin,” faces proceedings that began with his November 2025 arrest and an initial January 2026 court appearance, following two earlier sexual-assault charges from 2019 and 2023 that were withdrawn. Multiple women have publicly shared allegations, yet Canadian court backlogs and the time required for investigations, possible additional charges, and trial scheduling make a resolution before 2027 unlikely without a swift plea. Traders weigh this procedural reality against the high uncertainty typical of developing legal cases involving influencers, where outcomes hinge on evidence presentation and victim cooperation rather than social-media momentum alone.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJustin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?
Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?
$52,333 Vol.
$52,333 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$52,333 Vol.
$52,333 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.The recent arrest and single charge against Toronto dating coach Justin Aguiar for an August 2024 incident has not yet produced a conviction, supporting the 58% market-implied odds on “No.” Aguiar, known online as “Drunk Justin,” faces proceedings that began with his November 2025 arrest and an initial January 2026 court appearance, following two earlier sexual-assault charges from 2019 and 2023 that were withdrawn. Multiple women have publicly shared allegations, yet Canadian court backlogs and the time required for investigations, possible additional charges, and trial scheduling make a resolution before 2027 unlikely without a swift plea. Traders weigh this procedural reality against the high uncertainty typical of developing legal cases involving influencers, where outcomes hinge on evidence presentation and victim cooperation rather than social-media momentum alone.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$52,333End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.The recent arrest and single charge against Toronto dating coach Justin Aguiar for an August 2024 incident has not yet produced a conviction, supporting the 58% market-implied odds on “No.” Aguiar, known online as “Drunk Justin,” faces proceedings that began with his November 2025 arrest and an initial January 2026 court appearance, following two earlier sexual-assault charges from 2019 and 2023 that were withdrawn. Multiple women have publicly shared allegations, yet Canadian court backlogs and the time required for investigations, possible additional charges, and trial scheduling make a resolution before 2027 unlikely without a swift plea. Traders weigh this procedural reality against the high uncertainty typical of developing legal cases involving influencers, where outcomes hinge on evidence presentation and victim cooperation rather than social-media momentum alone.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$52,333End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The recent arrest and single charge against Toronto dating coach Justin Aguiar for an August 2024 incident has not yet produced a conviction, supporting the 58% market-implied odds on “No.” Aguiar, known online as “Drunk Justin,” faces proceedings that began with his November 2025 arrest and an initial January 2026 court appearance, following two earlier sexual-assault charges from 2019 and 2023 that were withdrawn. Multiple women have publicly shared allegations, yet Canadian court backlogs and the time required for investigations, possible additional charges, and trial scheduling make a resolution before 2027 unlikely without a swift plea. Traders weigh this procedural reality against the high uncertainty typical of developing legal cases involving influencers, where outcomes hinge on evidence presentation and victim cooperation rather than social-media momentum alone.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions