Mild Atlantic airflow and persistent cloud cover are the main drivers keeping Amsterdam's October 1 overnight low near 13–14 °C, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around those values. Official forecasts from GFS-based models show daytime highs near 19–20 °C under light rain and westerly winds of 10–15 km/h, followed by gradual nighttime cooling to 13–14 °C as skies remain mostly cloudy and dew points stay elevated near 13 °C. This setup limits radiative cooling compared with clearer conditions that could allow the mercury to dip toward 11 °C or below. Historical October 1 lows average 9.4 °C, so the current mild pattern reflects a positive temperature anomaly. Traders weigh the latest model runs and any last-hour clearing that could sharpen the overnight minimum, with resolution hinging on the precise 24-hour minimum recorded at the official station.