Current short-range forecasts from regional models indicate Amsterdam's overnight minimum on October 3 will likely fall between 10–13 °C under mostly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow, near or slightly above the early-October climatological average of roughly 9 °C. This pattern supports the market's elevated 49 % implied probability on a lowest temperature of 15 °C or higher, while the 1 % odds on 5 °C or below reflect the absence of any strong high-pressure or northerly advection that could produce sharper cooling. Traders are weighting the latest ECMWF and GFS runs showing limited nocturnal radiative loss, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of any clearing and wind shift before dawn on the 3rd. Updated model guidance through October 2 will further refine these ranges.