Recent official forecasts from sources including the GFS model and European guidance indicate a minimum temperature in Amsterdam on October 2 near 11–12 °C under clearing skies and light southerly flow. High pressure building after October 1 rainfall supports radiational cooling overnight, yet the mild airmass limits the drop below seasonal norms. Ensemble spreads remain narrow around this range, with minor model differences in cloud cover and wind creating the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 8 °C and 16 °C. Historical October 2 lows average near 9 °C, but current conditions favor the upper side of that distribution, keeping probabilities for extremes below 2 %. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening will refine the exact minimum before resolution.