**Current meteorological forecasts for Chengdu indicate a daily minimum temperature near 20°C on October 1, 2026, aligning with the market's strong 92% implied probability for that outcome.** Multiple weather models project overnight lows of 19–20°C under mostly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds and high humidity around 60–80%, consistent with early-autumn climatology where Chengdu's average October lows begin near 18°C before seasonal cooling accelerates. This positioning reflects the consensus from ensemble guidance showing stable atmospheric conditions without significant cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative cooling that could drop readings further. A sudden shift in steering patterns or localized measurement differences at official stations could realistically push the minimum to 18–19°C, though current model runs assign low probability to such deviations before resolution.