**Latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show a consensus minimum temperature near 18°C for Chengdu on October 2 under mostly cloudy skies and light winds.** These conditions limit overnight radiative cooling, keeping the low from dropping sharply, while any clearing could allow a 1–2°C cooler reading. The closely matched market-implied odds (14°C or below at 45.5% versus 24°C or higher at 45.0%, with specific bins clustered around 40–43.5%) reflect genuine forecast uncertainty typical of short-range temperature predictions, where minor shifts in cloud cover, humidity, or boundary-layer mixing can alter the exact overnight minimum. Historical October lows in Chengdu average near 16–18°C, providing context for the current trader consensus amid evolving model guidance ahead of the overnight period.