Forecast consensus from regional meteorological models points to an overnight low near 18–20 °C for Chengdu on October 3, driven by the ongoing Huaxi autumn rain regime of persistent cloud cover, light rain, and light northerly winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This pattern, typical for the Sichuan Basin in early October, keeps surface temperatures above seasonal radiative minima while daytime mixing remains modest. Model runs show minor spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed that could shift the exact minimum by 1–2 °C, creating the near-even market split between sub-14 °C and 23 °C+ outcomes; updated China Meteorological Administration guidance and next-model cycles will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.