Recent NOAA forecast guidance and ensemble model runs for Dallas show notable spread in expected overnight minimum temperatures for August 24, with the 86-87°F bin holding the highest implied probability due to consensus on partly cloudy conditions and moderate humidity limiting radiative cooling. Key variables include boundary-layer moisture from upstream Gulf flow, weak high pressure allowing limited mixing, and potential for slightly stronger winds that could prevent deeper cooling. ECMWF and GFS solutions diverge modestly on dewpoint forecasts, creating the tight clustering between mid-80s and upper-90s outcomes. Updated model cycles and local National Weather Service observations tonight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Dallas on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Dallas on August 24?
98°F or higher 87%
96-97°F 84%
86-87°F 53%
79°F or below 42%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
79°F or below
42%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
42%
84-85°F
28%
86-87°F
53%
88-89°F
42%
90-91°F
19%
92-93°F
36%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
84%
98°F or higher
87%
98°F or higher 87%
96-97°F 84%
86-87°F 53%
79°F or below 42%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
79°F or below
$0 Vol.
42%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
19%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
42%
84-85°F
$6 Vol.
28%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
53%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
42%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
19%
92-93°F
$5 Vol.
36%
94-95°F
$5 Vol.
2%
96-97°F
$5 Vol.
84%
98°F or higher
$5 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent NOAA forecast guidance and ensemble model runs for Dallas show notable spread in expected overnight minimum temperatures for August 24, with the 86-87°F bin holding the highest implied probability due to consensus on partly cloudy conditions and moderate humidity limiting radiative cooling. Key variables include boundary-layer moisture from upstream Gulf flow, weak high pressure allowing limited mixing, and potential for slightly stronger winds that could prevent deeper cooling. ECMWF and GFS solutions diverge modestly on dewpoint forecasts, creating the tight clustering between mid-80s and upper-90s outcomes. Updated model cycles and local National Weather Service observations tonight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$26End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent NOAA forecast guidance and ensemble model runs for Dallas show notable spread in expected overnight minimum temperatures for August 24, with the 86-87°F bin holding the highest implied probability due to consensus on partly cloudy conditions and moderate humidity limiting radiative cooling. Key variables include boundary-layer moisture from upstream Gulf flow, weak high pressure allowing limited mixing, and potential for slightly stronger winds that could prevent deeper cooling. ECMWF and GFS solutions diverge modestly on dewpoint forecasts, creating the tight clustering between mid-80s and upper-90s outcomes. Updated model cycles and local National Weather Service observations tonight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$26End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent NOAA forecast guidance and ensemble model runs for Dallas show notable spread in expected overnight minimum temperatures for August 24, with the 86-87°F bin holding the highest implied probability due to consensus on partly cloudy conditions and moderate humidity limiting radiative cooling. Key variables include boundary-layer moisture from upstream Gulf flow, weak high pressure allowing limited mixing, and potential for slightly stronger winds that could prevent deeper cooling. ECMWF and GFS solutions diverge modestly on dewpoint forecasts, creating the tight clustering between mid-80s and upper-90s outcomes. Updated model cycles and local National Weather Service observations tonight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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