The closely matched probabilities across temperature bins reflect substantial forecast uncertainty for Guangzhou’s October 2 minimum, with ensemble models showing a broad spread around seasonal norms of 24–27 °C. Primary drivers include variable steering patterns from the East Asian monsoon transition, potential weak frontal passages, and local urban heat-island modulation that can shift overnight lows by 1–3 °C. Recent global model runs (GFS, ECMWF) and China Meteorological Administration guidance indicate modest disagreement on cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture, keeping outcomes near 45–50 % implied odds. New high-resolution updates and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.