Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting models point to a minimum temperature of 26°C on June 15, driven by persistent cloud cover and showers that limit overnight radiative cooling in the subtropical summer regime. Heavy rainfall expected through June 14–15 is the key near-term catalyst, as it sustains higher humidity and reduces diurnal temperature ranges compared to clearer conditions. Seasonal outlooks already indicate above-normal temperatures overall, yet local model consensus clusters the daily minimum tightly around 25–27°C. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 26°C because it aligns with these guidance products, while lower or higher outcomes would require unexpected clearing or stronger advection not currently signaled. Updated model runs ahead of landfall timing remain the next potential market mover.