Traders have concentrated nearly two-thirds of implied probability on highs of 74–77°F for Chicago on June 15 because the latest forecast guidance from NWS and private models shows a daytime maximum in the low-to-mid 70s. Cooler-than-normal air behind a departing cold front, combined with increasing cloud cover and possible scattered showers, is suppressing temperatures several degrees below the long-term June 15 average high of 80.5°F. Ensemble spreads remain modest, supporting the narrow 76–77°F bin as the mode while limiting upside risk to the 78–79°F tier. Updated model runs and the official NWS point forecast expected overnight will determine whether probabilities shift further toward the current leading outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chicago on June 15?
Highest temperature in Chicago on June 15?
76-77°F 39%
74-75 °F 32%
78-79°F 16%
72-73°F 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 juin 2026
65°F ou moins
<1%
66-67 °F
<1%
68-69 °F
<1%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
9%
74-75 °F
32%
76-77°F
39%
78-79°F
16%
80-81 °F
4%
82-83°F
1%
84°F or higher
1%
76-77°F 39%
74-75 °F 32%
78-79°F 16%
72-73°F 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 juin 2026
65°F ou moins
$223 Vol.
<1%
66-67 °F
$269 Vol.
<1%
68-69 °F
$140 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$718 Vol.
3%
72-73°F
$739 Vol.
9%
74-75 °F
$457 Vol.
32%
76-77°F
$308 Vol.
39%
78-79°F
$296 Vol.
16%
80-81 °F
$196 Vol.
4%
82-83°F
$629 Vol.
1%
84°F or higher
$775 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have concentrated nearly two-thirds of implied probability on highs of 74–77°F for Chicago on June 15 because the latest forecast guidance from NWS and private models shows a daytime maximum in the low-to-mid 70s. Cooler-than-normal air behind a departing cold front, combined with increasing cloud cover and possible scattered showers, is suppressing temperatures several degrees below the long-term June 15 average high of 80.5°F. Ensemble spreads remain modest, supporting the narrow 76–77°F bin as the mode while limiting upside risk to the 78–79°F tier. Updated model runs and the official NWS point forecast expected overnight will determine whether probabilities shift further toward the current leading outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jun 13, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$4,731Date de fin
15 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 13, 2026, 9:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have concentrated nearly two-thirds of implied probability on highs of 74–77°F for Chicago on June 15 because the latest forecast guidance from NWS and private models shows a daytime maximum in the low-to-mid 70s. Cooler-than-normal air behind a departing cold front, combined with increasing cloud cover and possible scattered showers, is suppressing temperatures several degrees below the long-term June 15 average high of 80.5°F. Ensemble spreads remain modest, supporting the narrow 76–77°F bin as the mode while limiting upside risk to the 78–79°F tier. Updated model runs and the official NWS point forecast expected overnight will determine whether probabilities shift further toward the current leading outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,731Date de fin
15 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 13, 2026, 9:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have concentrated nearly two-thirds of implied probability on highs of 74–77°F for Chicago on June 15 because the latest forecast guidance from NWS and private models shows a daytime maximum in the low-to-mid 70s. Cooler-than-normal air behind a departing cold front, combined with increasing cloud cover and possible scattered showers, is suppressing temperatures several degrees below the long-term June 15 average high of 80.5°F. Ensemble spreads remain modest, supporting the narrow 76–77°F bin as the mode while limiting upside risk to the 78–79°F tier. Updated model runs and the official NWS point forecast expected overnight will determine whether probabilities shift further toward the current leading outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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