Recent Met Office guidance indicates a minimum of 19°C for London on July 28 under a warm, settled pattern with daytime highs near 29°C, following an early-July heatwave that peaked at 35°C. Ensemble model spreads and minor variations in overnight cloud cover, wind, and boundary-layer mixing create tight clustering around 18–20°C outcomes, explaining the near-even 36% market-implied probabilities. Clearer skies would favor slightly lower readings via enhanced radiational cooling, while any increase in humidity or light winds could hold minima near 20°C. Updated short-range runs and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on July 28?
Lowest temperature in London on July 28?
19°C 31%
18°C 24%
14°C or below 21%
20°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Jul 28, 2026
14°C or below
21%
15°C
18%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
24%
19°C
31%
20°C
19%
21°C
18%
22°C
18%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
2%
19°C 31%
18°C 24%
14°C or below 21%
20°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Jul 28, 2026
14°C or below
$27 Vol.
21%
15°C
$0 Vol.
18%
16°C
$0 Vol.
18%
17°C
$0 Vol.
18%
18°C
$0 Vol.
24%
19°C
$12 Vol.
31%
20°C
$0 Vol.
19%
21°C
$0 Vol.
18%
22°C
$0 Vol.
18%
23°C
$15 Vol.
2%
24°C or higher
$15 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance indicates a minimum of 19°C for London on July 28 under a warm, settled pattern with daytime highs near 29°C, following an early-July heatwave that peaked at 35°C. Ensemble model spreads and minor variations in overnight cloud cover, wind, and boundary-layer mixing create tight clustering around 18–20°C outcomes, explaining the near-even 36% market-implied probabilities. Clearer skies would favor slightly lower readings via enhanced radiational cooling, while any increase in humidity or light winds could hold minima near 20°C. Updated short-range runs and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 26, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Volume
$69End Date
Jul 28, 2026Market Opened
Jul 26, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance indicates a minimum of 19°C for London on July 28 under a warm, settled pattern with daytime highs near 29°C, following an early-July heatwave that peaked at 35°C. Ensemble model spreads and minor variations in overnight cloud cover, wind, and boundary-layer mixing create tight clustering around 18–20°C outcomes, explaining the near-even 36% market-implied probabilities. Clearer skies would favor slightly lower readings via enhanced radiational cooling, while any increase in humidity or light winds could hold minima near 20°C. Updated short-range runs and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$69End Date
Jul 28, 2026Market Opened
Jul 26, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office guidance indicates a minimum of 19°C for London on July 28 under a warm, settled pattern with daytime highs near 29°C, following an early-July heatwave that peaked at 35°C. Ensemble model spreads and minor variations in overnight cloud cover, wind, and boundary-layer mixing create tight clustering around 18–20°C outcomes, explaining the near-even 36% market-implied probabilities. Clearer skies would favor slightly lower readings via enhanced radiational cooling, while any increase in humidity or light winds could hold minima near 20°C. Updated short-range runs and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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