Traders see the 23–25°C outcomes clustered near 35–38% as the most probable for Tokyo’s July 28 minimum because official JMA guidance and ensemble models place the expected overnight low near the long-term July average of 23–24°C under cloudy skies and scattered showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping temperatures from dropping sharply while preventing the warmer extremes that would require strong southerly flow or clearing. Model spreads remain modest two days out, producing the tight probability band reflected in the market; any shift in the 48-hour forecast toward more persistent rain or stronger winds could tilt the distribution toward 22°C or 26°C, but current guidance shows no such signal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?
24°C 37%
27°C 30%
23°C 29%
28°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Jul 28, 2026
19°C or below
2%
20°C
14%
21°C
18%
22°C
18%
23°C
29%
24°C
48%
25°C
20%
26°C
18%
27°C
30%
28°C
24%
29°C or higher
13%
24°C 37%
27°C 30%
23°C 29%
28°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Jul 28, 2026
19°C or below
$15 Vol.
2%
20°C
$8 Vol.
14%
21°C
$0 Vol.
18%
22°C
$0 Vol.
18%
23°C
$13 Vol.
29%
24°C
$5 Vol.
48%
25°C
$0 Vol.
20%
26°C
$0 Vol.
18%
27°C
$34 Vol.
30%
28°C
$42 Vol.
24%
29°C or higher
$42 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 23–25°C outcomes clustered near 35–38% as the most probable for Tokyo’s July 28 minimum because official JMA guidance and ensemble models place the expected overnight low near the long-term July average of 23–24°C under cloudy skies and scattered showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping temperatures from dropping sharply while preventing the warmer extremes that would require strong southerly flow or clearing. Model spreads remain modest two days out, producing the tight probability band reflected in the market; any shift in the 48-hour forecast toward more persistent rain or stronger winds could tilt the distribution toward 22°C or 26°C, but current guidance shows no such signal.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 26, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Volume
$158End Date
Jul 28, 2026Market Opened
Jul 26, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 23–25°C outcomes clustered near 35–38% as the most probable for Tokyo’s July 28 minimum because official JMA guidance and ensemble models place the expected overnight low near the long-term July average of 23–24°C under cloudy skies and scattered showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping temperatures from dropping sharply while preventing the warmer extremes that would require strong southerly flow or clearing. Model spreads remain modest two days out, producing the tight probability band reflected in the market; any shift in the 48-hour forecast toward more persistent rain or stronger winds could tilt the distribution toward 22°C or 26°C, but current guidance shows no such signal.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$158End Date
Jul 28, 2026Market Opened
Jul 26, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the 23–25°C outcomes clustered near 35–38% as the most probable for Tokyo’s July 28 minimum because official JMA guidance and ensemble models place the expected overnight low near the long-term July average of 23–24°C under cloudy skies and scattered showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping temperatures from dropping sharply while preventing the warmer extremes that would require strong southerly flow or clearing. Model spreads remain modest two days out, producing the tight probability band reflected in the market; any shift in the 48-hour forecast toward more persistent rain or stronger winds could tilt the distribution toward 22°C or 26°C, but current guidance shows no such signal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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