Recent forecast models from multiple meteorological sources indicate overnight lows in Mexico City around 12–14°C for October 5, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and light rain that limit nocturnal radiative cooling at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. This setup contrasts with drier historical patterns that allow temperatures to fall closer to seasonal averages near 9°C, creating trader uncertainty reflected in the near-even split between sub-8°C and 18°C-plus outcomes. Key variables include evolving steering winds and model consensus on precipitation timing, with updated runs from national weather agencies expected to refine the precise minimum ahead of market resolution.