Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate Miami’s overnight low on October 11 will likely fall in the upper 70s to low 80s under a persistent warm, moist southeast flow with mostly clear skies after any early showers. This places the outcome well above the historical October 11 average low of 75 °F and supports market-implied odds favoring the 71 °F-or-below bin at 49.5 % only if an unexpected cool-air intrusion develops. Current ensemble consensus shows limited overnight radiational cooling due to high dew points near 78 °F and light winds, keeping probabilities for mid-70s or higher ranges elevated. Traders appear to be weighting residual model spread and any late guidance shifts ahead of the NHC and local forecast updates expected over the next 48 hours.