Recent GFS-based forecasts and official guidance from Russian meteorological services point to overnight lows near 5–6 °C in Moscow on October 2 under mostly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and high pressure near 1030 hPa. This consensus places the expected minimum well above freezing yet below the 8 °C threshold, explaining the near-even market split between the 8 °C-or-higher outcome (49 %) and the -2 °C-or-below outcome (47 %). Model spread in boundary-layer cooling and cloud cover timing creates the tight clustering around single-digit probabilities for exact values such as 3 °C or 0 °C. With resolution imminent, any final adjustment to the 00–06 UTC minimum from updated runs will directly determine the outcome.