Recent forecast model runs from sources like GFS and European centers indicate Moscow's October 3 minimum will likely fall between 5–8°C under a stable high-pressure regime promoting clear skies and modest radiational cooling overnight. This positioning splits trader consensus near 50% for 0°C or below versus 10°C or higher, reflecting uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing, wind speeds near 5–10 km/h, and any residual cloud cover that could limit overnight temperature drops. Historical climatology for early October shows typical lows near 5–7°C, providing context for the balanced odds across single-degree outcomes from 1–9°C, with resolution hinging on official station readings at the coldest hour. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours could shift implied probabilities.