**Recent numerical weather prediction model consensus positions the overnight low in Paris on August 30, 2026, near 16–17°C.** Multiple runs from GFS, ECMWF, and regional models show a mild overnight period under mostly cloudy skies with light southwesterly flow and limited radiative cooling. This follows several days of unsettled oceanic air bringing showers and below-normal daytime highs, which has kept surface temperatures elevated overnight. Forecasts from sources including Météo-France-aligned outputs, Met Office guidance, and global ensembles consistently project a minimum of 16–17°C, with 17°C appearing most frequently as the central tendency. Historical climatology (1991–2020 average low of ~13.4°C) provides context, but current atmospheric conditions—an absence of clear skies or strong high pressure—support the warmer outcome. Model spread remains narrow for this short-range forecast, with limited upside risk for 18°C or higher and only modest downside potential for 15°C or below if clearing occurs earlier than expected. Trader positioning around the 17°C outcome (65.5% implied) and secondary 16°C share (27.5%) reflects this stable forecast consensus, with minimal probability assigned to extremes outside the 16–18°C range. Updated model runs and official briefings from Météo-France or the National Meteorological Service will provide the final resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 30?
17°C 66%
16°C 28%
18°C 12%
15°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
3%
15°C
5%
16°C
28%
17°C
66%
18°C
12%
19°C
5%
20°C
4%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
17°C 66%
16°C 28%
18°C 12%
15°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
12°C or below
$216 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$193 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$0 Vol.
3%
15°C
$11 Vol.
5%
16°C
$281 Vol.
28%
17°C
$967 Vol.
66%
18°C
$136 Vol.
12%
19°C
$0 Vol.
5%
20°C
$0 Vol.
4%
21°C
$86 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$40 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent numerical weather prediction model consensus positions the overnight low in Paris on August 30, 2026, near 16–17°C.** Multiple runs from GFS, ECMWF, and regional models show a mild overnight period under mostly cloudy skies with light southwesterly flow and limited radiative cooling. This follows several days of unsettled oceanic air bringing showers and below-normal daytime highs, which has kept surface temperatures elevated overnight.
Forecasts from sources including Météo-France-aligned outputs, Met Office guidance, and global ensembles consistently project a minimum of 16–17°C, with 17°C appearing most frequently as the central tendency. Historical climatology (1991–2020 average low of ~13.4°C) provides context, but current atmospheric conditions—an absence of clear skies or strong high pressure—support the warmer outcome. Model spread remains narrow for this short-range forecast, with limited upside risk for 18°C or higher and only modest downside potential for 15°C or below if clearing occurs earlier than expected.
Trader positioning around the 17°C outcome (65.5% implied) and secondary 16°C share (27.5%) reflects this stable forecast consensus, with minimal probability assigned to extremes outside the 16–18°C range. Updated model runs and official briefings from Météo-France or the National Meteorological Service will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,930End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent numerical weather prediction model consensus positions the overnight low in Paris on August 30, 2026, near 16–17°C.** Multiple runs from GFS, ECMWF, and regional models show a mild overnight period under mostly cloudy skies with light southwesterly flow and limited radiative cooling. This follows several days of unsettled oceanic air bringing showers and below-normal daytime highs, which has kept surface temperatures elevated overnight.
Forecasts from sources including Météo-France-aligned outputs, Met Office guidance, and global ensembles consistently project a minimum of 16–17°C, with 17°C appearing most frequently as the central tendency. Historical climatology (1991–2020 average low of ~13.4°C) provides context, but current atmospheric conditions—an absence of clear skies or strong high pressure—support the warmer outcome. Model spread remains narrow for this short-range forecast, with limited upside risk for 18°C or higher and only modest downside potential for 15°C or below if clearing occurs earlier than expected.
Trader positioning around the 17°C outcome (65.5% implied) and secondary 16°C share (27.5%) reflects this stable forecast consensus, with minimal probability assigned to extremes outside the 16–18°C range. Updated model runs and official briefings from Météo-France or the National Meteorological Service will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,930End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent numerical weather prediction model consensus positions the overnight low in Paris on August 30, 2026, near 16–17°C.** Multiple runs from GFS, ECMWF, and regional models show a mild overnight period under mostly cloudy skies with light southwesterly flow and limited radiative cooling. This follows several days of unsettled oceanic air bringing showers and below-normal daytime highs, which has kept surface temperatures elevated overnight. Forecasts from sources including Météo-France-aligned outputs, Met Office guidance, and global ensembles consistently project a minimum of 16–17°C, with 17°C appearing most frequently as the central tendency. Historical climatology (1991–2020 average low of ~13.4°C) provides context, but current atmospheric conditions—an absence of clear skies or strong high pressure—support the warmer outcome. Model spread remains narrow for this short-range forecast, with limited upside risk for 18°C or higher and only modest downside potential for 15°C or below if clearing occurs earlier than expected. Trader positioning around the 17°C outcome (65.5% implied) and secondary 16°C share (27.5%) reflects this stable forecast consensus, with minimal probability assigned to extremes outside the 16–18°C range. Updated model runs and official briefings from Météo-France or the National Meteorological Service will provide the final resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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