Forecast models from Météo-France and ensemble systems indicate a minimum temperature near 13°C in Paris on June 14 under building high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly winds that favor strong nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup aligns with climatological June lows of 12–14°C while limiting daytime mixing and keeping the overnight drop pronounced. Ensemble spreads remain tight around the 12–14°C range, with minor variations driven by exact cloud cover timing and boundary-layer moisture. Traders price 13°C highest because recent deterministic runs and historical analogs under similar anticyclonic regimes cluster there, though a slightly stronger inversion or delayed clearing could shift the minimum to 12°C or hold it at 14°C.