Recent forecasts from regional models and the Central Weather Bureau indicate a northeast monsoon regime will keep Taipei’s overnight minimum on October 11 in the low-20s °C, with most guidance centering near 22–23 °C under partly cloudy skies and moderate humidity. This places the outcome squarely between the market’s leading 28 °C+ and 18 °C-or-below options, whose near-even odds reflect model spread in boundary-layer cooling rates and urban heat-island effects at the official observing site. Light easterly winds and lingering moisture from earlier showers limit radiational cooling, while the absence of stronger cold-air advection keeps extreme departures unlikely. Updated high-resolution runs and the evening CWB briefing will provide the final data traders are watching before resolution.