Current forecasts from models like GFS and official guidance point to a minimum temperature in Taipei on October 12 around 18–22°C, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies under a northeast monsoon flow that allows moderate radiative cooling overnight while high humidity limits further drops. Historical October lows average near 22°C, with recent days showing 21–24°C minima amid stable high pressure and light easterly winds. Trader consensus favoring 27°C or higher as the leading outcome at 49% implied probability likely reflects expectations of limited cooling or model revisions toward warmer nights, though probabilities clustered near 33–34% for 19–26°C bins highlight genuine uncertainty in exact nocturnal temperatures and potential forecast adjustments from Central Weather Bureau updates.