Recent meteorological forecasts for Tel Aviv on September 25, 2026, from sources including the Israel Meteorological Service and global models, converge on a daily minimum near 24°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds and dew points around 18–19°C. This consensus, reflecting stable late-summer conditions and typical seasonal baselines of 22–25°C overnight lows, underpins the market’s 99.6% implied probability for that outcome. Minor model spreads exist around wind patterns or localized cloud effects that could allow a brief dip to 23°C, though current observations and ensemble runs show limited likelihood of such deviation before resolution.