Forecast models from ECMWF, GFS, and regional sources converge on a minimum temperature near 22–23°C for Tel Aviv on September 26, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds of 5–10 km/h, and typical late-September Mediterranean radiative cooling under stable high pressure. Dew points around 17–19°C and humidity near 70% overnight support modest drops without strong advection of cooler air. The close market split between sub-19°C and 28°C+ outcomes reflects residual model spread in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects, though historical September minima average near 22°C and current runs show limited day-to-day variability. Final resolution hinges on the precise overnight low recorded by official stations.