Recent numerical weather model consensus, including ECMWF runs, points to a minimum temperature near 22–23°C in Tel Aviv on September 26, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, moderate relative humidity around 70–80% overnight, and light northwesterly winds that permit radiative cooling while the Mediterranean Sea moderates extremes. This aligns with late-September climatology for the coastal plain, where typical overnight lows range 21–24°C absent strong synoptic forcing. Trader emphasis on the 28°C-or-higher bin alongside 18°C-or-below reflects model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any potential for localized sea-breeze effects or slight forecast revisions before resolution, with the 23°C exact outcome capturing the central tendency of current guidance. Updated model runs and official Israel Meteorological Service observations will refine these implied probabilities ahead of the daily minimum.