Recent forecasts for Wellington indicate a transitional weather pattern on September 28, with a cold front and southerly winds early in the period potentially yielding overnight lows near 7–8°C before nor’westerlies moderate conditions. Model consensus from MetService and international guidance shows daytime highs around 14–15°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with low precipitation risk, yet timing of the wind shift and any residual cool air advection introduce notable spread. Historical late-September minima average near 10°C, but current ensemble runs diverge on whether brief southerly flow can push readings below 5°C or allow milder recovery above 10°C. This genuine forecast uncertainty, combined with Wellington’s exposure to rapid wind-driven temperature changes, underpins the near-even market split between sub-4°C and 13°C+ outcomes. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine resolution probabilities.