**High implied probability on "No" (93.5%) reflects the extreme historical rarity of four-home-run games in MLB.** Only 21 such performances have occurred across more than a century of play, with the most recent coming from Kyle Schwarber on August 28, 2025. The 2026 season has seen none through mid-August despite elevated home-run rates league-wide. Key drivers include the need for a specific confluence of factors: a power hitter receiving at least five at-bats in a single contest (often requiring extra innings or a lopsided scoreline), facing a vulnerable pitching staff, and sustaining an unprecedented hot streak within one game. Recent seasons show multi-homer outbursts are more common, yet four remains an outlier even for top sluggers like Aaron Judge or Pete Alonso. With roughly six weeks remaining in the regular season and no player exhibiting the sustained dominance or matchup edge that historically preceded these feats, trader consensus prices the remaining probability of occurrence as low. Injury reports, rest advantages, and late-season roster moves have not altered this dynamic meaningfully.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 28, 2026
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 28, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**High implied probability on "No" (93.5%) reflects the extreme historical rarity of four-home-run games in MLB.** Only 21 such performances have occurred across more than a century of play, with the most recent coming from Kyle Schwarber on August 28, 2025. The 2026 season has seen none through mid-August despite elevated home-run rates league-wide.
Key drivers include the need for a specific confluence of factors: a power hitter receiving at least five at-bats in a single contest (often requiring extra innings or a lopsided scoreline), facing a vulnerable pitching staff, and sustaining an unprecedented hot streak within one game. Recent seasons show multi-homer outbursts are more common, yet four remains an outlier even for top sluggers like Aaron Judge or Pete Alonso.
With roughly six weeks remaining in the regular season and no player exhibiting the sustained dominance or matchup edge that historically preceded these feats, trader consensus prices the remaining probability of occurrence as low. Injury reports, rest advantages, and late-season roster moves have not altered this dynamic meaningfully.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Volume
$3End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**High implied probability on "No" (93.5%) reflects the extreme historical rarity of four-home-run games in MLB.** Only 21 such performances have occurred across more than a century of play, with the most recent coming from Kyle Schwarber on August 28, 2025. The 2026 season has seen none through mid-August despite elevated home-run rates league-wide.
Key drivers include the need for a specific confluence of factors: a power hitter receiving at least five at-bats in a single contest (often requiring extra innings or a lopsided scoreline), facing a vulnerable pitching staff, and sustaining an unprecedented hot streak within one game. Recent seasons show multi-homer outbursts are more common, yet four remains an outlier even for top sluggers like Aaron Judge or Pete Alonso.
With roughly six weeks remaining in the regular season and no player exhibiting the sustained dominance or matchup edge that historically preceded these feats, trader consensus prices the remaining probability of occurrence as low. Injury reports, rest advantages, and late-season roster moves have not altered this dynamic meaningfully.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**High implied probability on "No" (93.5%) reflects the extreme historical rarity of four-home-run games in MLB.** Only 21 such performances have occurred across more than a century of play, with the most recent coming from Kyle Schwarber on August 28, 2025. The 2026 season has seen none through mid-August despite elevated home-run rates league-wide. Key drivers include the need for a specific confluence of factors: a power hitter receiving at least five at-bats in a single contest (often requiring extra innings or a lopsided scoreline), facing a vulnerable pitching staff, and sustaining an unprecedented hot streak within one game. Recent seasons show multi-homer outbursts are more common, yet four remains an outlier even for top sluggers like Aaron Judge or Pete Alonso. With roughly six weeks remaining in the regular season and no player exhibiting the sustained dominance or matchup edge that historically preceded these feats, trader consensus prices the remaining probability of occurrence as low. Injury reports, rest advantages, and late-season roster moves have not altered this dynamic meaningfully.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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