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Sports·MLB

MLB: Player to Hit 50+ Home Runs

icon for MLB: Player to Hit 50+ Home Runs
Sports·MLB

MLB: Player to Hit 50+ Home Runs

$34,901 Vol.

Oct 11, 2026
Polymarket

$34,901 Vol.

Polymarket

Yordan Alvarez

$1,797 Vol.

13%

Shohei Ohtani

$172 Vol.

6%

Matt Olson

$774 Vol.

5%

Hunter Goodman

$3,987 Vol.

5%

Kazuma Okamoto

$698 Vol.

3%

Bryce Harper

$614 Vol.

3%

James Wood

$774 Vol.

3%

Manny Machado

$358 Vol.

3%

Byron Buxton

$3,308 Vol.

2%

Miguel Vargas

$1,424 Vol.

2%

Munetaka Murakami

$493 Vol.

2%

Christian Walker

$1,821 Vol.

2%

Andy Pages

$1,124 Vol.

2%

Jordan Walker

$1,482 Vol.

2%

Mike Trout

$427 Vol.

2%

Brandon Lowe

$2,094 Vol.

2%

Wilson Contreras

$985 Vol.

2%

Ketel Marte

$521 Vol.

2%

CJ Abrams

$1,179 Vol.

2%

Colson Montgomery

$2,375 Vol.

13%

Dillon Dingler

$1,486 Vol.

2%

Ben Rice

$631 Vol.

1%

Juan Soto

$1,203 Vol.

1%

Nick Kurtz

$800 Vol.

1%

Dansby Swanson

$917 Vol.

1%

Shea Langeliers

$482 Vol.

1%

Aaron Judge

$554 Vol.

1%

Pete Alonso

$1,688 Vol.

<1%

Kyle Schwarber

$218 Vol.

39%

Junior Caminero

$517 Vol.

38%

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 50 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**As of early September 2026, no MLB player is on a clear trajectory for 50 home runs in the season.** Leaders such as Kyle Schwarber (Philadelphia, 40 HR in 131–132 games), Pete Crow-Armstrong (Chicago Cubs, 38 HR in 137 games), Matt Olson (Atlanta, 37 HR), and Yordan Alvarez (Houston, 37 HR) sit well short with roughly 25–30 games left. Reaching the milestone would require sustained power outbursts amid September fatigue, tighter bullpens, and variable weather. Recent results show steady but not explosive production from these hitters, consistent with historical patterns where 50-HR seasons remain rare. Key variables include remaining schedule strength, injury management for high-workload sluggers, and park effects for contenders pushing for playoff positioning. Trader consensus reflects the steep remaining climb while acknowledging that a hot streak from one or two power bats could still shift probabilities.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 50 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$34,901
End Date
Oct 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.mlb.com

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 50 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 50 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**As of early September 2026, no MLB player is on a clear trajectory for 50 home runs in the season.** Leaders such as Kyle Schwarber (Philadelphia, 40 HR in 131–132 games), Pete Crow-Armstrong (Chicago Cubs, 38 HR in 137 games), Matt Olson (Atlanta, 37 HR), and Yordan Alvarez (Houston, 37 HR) sit well short with roughly 25–30 games left. Reaching the milestone would require sustained power outbursts amid September fatigue, tighter bullpens, and variable weather. Recent results show steady but not explosive production from these hitters, consistent with historical patterns where 50-HR seasons remain rare. Key variables include remaining schedule strength, injury management for high-workload sluggers, and park effects for contenders pushing for playoff positioning. Trader consensus reflects the steep remaining climb while acknowledging that a hot streak from one or two power bats could still shift probabilities.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 50 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$34,901
End Date
Oct 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.mlb.com

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 50 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: Player to Hit 50+ Home Runs" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 30 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kyle Schwarber" at 39%, followed by "Junior Caminero" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: Player to Hit 50+ Home Runs" has generated $34.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: Player to Hit 50+ Home Runs," browse the 30 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: Player to Hit 50+ Home Runs" is "Kyle Schwarber" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Junior Caminero" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: Player to Hit 50+ Home Runs" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.