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icon for MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs
Sports·MLB

MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs

icon for MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs
Sports·MLB

MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs

$33,519 Vol.

Oct 11, 2026
Polymarket

$33,519 Vol.

Polymarket

Junior Caminero

$2,971 Vol.

87%

Yordan Alvarez

$1,567 Vol.

82%

Matt Olson

$2,929 Vol.

80%

Hunter Goodman

$2,466 Vol.

69%

Pete Alonso

$122 Vol.

14%

Shohei Ohtani

$1,376 Vol.

11%

Colson Montgomery

$1,026 Vol.

8%

Brandon Lowe

$1,893 Vol.

7%

Jordan Walker

$648 Vol.

7%

Kazuma Okamoto

$0 Vol.

6%

Miguel Vargas

$120 Vol.

6%

Munetaka Murakami

$543 Vol.

5%

Byron Buxton

$2,464 Vol.

5%

CJ Abrams

$1,530 Vol.

4%

Wilson Contreras

$399 Vol.

4%

Dillon Dingler

$3,379 Vol.

4%

$0 Vol.

4%

Bryce Harper

$457 Vol.

4%

$130 Vol.

3%

Mike Trout

$681 Vol.

3%

Ketel Marte

$393 Vol.

2%

Manny Machado

$272 Vol.

2%

Juan Soto

$360 Vol.

2%

James Wood

$1,555 Vol.

2%

Aaron Judge

$1,773 Vol.

2%

Christian Walker

$390 Vol.

2%

Nick Kurtz

$263 Vol.

2%

Shea Langeliers

$2,432 Vol.

1%

Ben Rice

$317 Vol.

47%

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber leads MLB with 40 home runs, while Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 39 after a historic August surge that included 14 long balls. Yordan Alvarez, Junior Caminero, and Matt Olson each have 37, with Hunter Goodman at 36, creating an unusually tight race with roughly 23 games left. Crow-Armstrong’s recent power outburst and favorable remaining schedule position him to challenge or surpass the leader, while Alvarez benefits from strong on-base skills and lineup protection in Houston. Factors such as rest days, pitching matchups, and park effects in the final stretch will influence whether additional players join or exceed the 40-home-run threshold before the regular season concludes.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$33,519
End Date
Oct 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.mlb.com

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber leads MLB with 40 home runs, while Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 39 after a historic August surge that included 14 long balls. Yordan Alvarez, Junior Caminero, and Matt Olson each have 37, with Hunter Goodman at 36, creating an unusually tight race with roughly 23 games left. Crow-Armstrong’s recent power outburst and favorable remaining schedule position him to challenge or surpass the leader, while Alvarez benefits from strong on-base skills and lineup protection in Houston. Factors such as rest days, pitching matchups, and park effects in the final stretch will influence whether additional players join or exceed the 40-home-run threshold before the regular season concludes.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$33,519
End Date
Oct 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.mlb.com

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 30 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kyle Schwarber" at 100%, followed by "Junior Caminero" at 87%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs" has generated $33.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs," browse the 30 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs" is "Kyle Schwarber" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Junior Caminero" at 87%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.