Trader consensus at 97.8% on "Nothing" for the September market reflects the absence of any resolution triggers through late in the month. No ceasefire agreements have emerged in the Russia-Ukraine or Israel-Hamas conflicts, Zelenskyy and Putin have not met, the Federal Reserve has not cut rates by 50 basis points or more, and no changes have occurred in key Federal Reserve leadership positions. Diplomatic activity at the UN General Assembly, including U.S.-Iran discussions and regional elections, has not produced the specified outcomes. With only days remaining, the narrow window limits opportunities for sudden shifts. Late developments such as an unexpected rate decision, leadership change at the Fed, or breakthrough talks in active conflicts could still alter the outcome before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNothing Ever Happens: September
Nothing Ever Happens: September
Nothing
98% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Nothing
98% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and
September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Putin out as President of Russia
- Fed rate cut
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_September.pdfTrader consensus at 97.8% on "Nothing" for the September market reflects the absence of any resolution triggers through late in the month. No ceasefire agreements have emerged in the Russia-Ukraine or Israel-Hamas conflicts, Zelenskyy and Putin have not met, the Federal Reserve has not cut rates by 50 basis points or more, and no changes have occurred in key Federal Reserve leadership positions. Diplomatic activity at the UN General Assembly, including U.S.-Iran discussions and regional elections, has not produced the specified outcomes. With only days remaining, the narrow window limits opportunities for sudden shifts. Late developments such as an unexpected rate decision, leadership change at the Fed, or breakthrough talks in active conflicts could still alter the outcome before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and
September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Putin out as President of Russia
- Fed rate cut
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_September.pdf
September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Putin out as President of Russia
- Fed rate cut
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_September.pdf
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 7:34 PM ET
Volume
$2,598End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 7:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and
September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Putin out as President of Russia
- Fed rate cut
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_September.pdfTrader consensus at 97.8% on "Nothing" for the September market reflects the absence of any resolution triggers through late in the month. No ceasefire agreements have emerged in the Russia-Ukraine or Israel-Hamas conflicts, Zelenskyy and Putin have not met, the Federal Reserve has not cut rates by 50 basis points or more, and no changes have occurred in key Federal Reserve leadership positions. Diplomatic activity at the UN General Assembly, including U.S.-Iran discussions and regional elections, has not produced the specified outcomes. With only days remaining, the narrow window limits opportunities for sudden shifts. Late developments such as an unexpected rate decision, leadership change at the Fed, or breakthrough talks in active conflicts could still alter the outcome before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and
September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Putin out as President of Russia
- Fed rate cut
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_September.pdf
September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Putin out as President of Russia
- Fed rate cut
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_September.pdf
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 7:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Trader consensus at 97.8% on "Nothing" for the September market reflects the absence of any resolution triggers through late in the month. No ceasefire agreements have emerged in the Russia-Ukraine or Israel-Hamas conflicts, Zelenskyy and Putin have not met, the Federal Reserve has not cut rates by 50 basis points or more, and no changes have occurred in key Federal Reserve leadership positions. Diplomatic activity at the UN General Assembly, including U.S.-Iran discussions and regional elections, has not produced the specified outcomes. With only days remaining, the narrow window limits opportunities for sudden shifts. Late developments such as an unexpected rate decision, leadership change at the Fed, or breakthrough talks in active conflicts could still alter the outcome before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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