**Recent Peruvian government actions have solidified trader expectations against a 2026 pardon for former President Pedro Castillo.** Multiple pardon requests submitted on his behalf were declared inadmissible by the Presidential Pardons Commission, with the final one rejected in July 2026 under interim President José María Balcázar. Officials cited procedural failures, pending legal processes, and failure to meet eligibility criteria such as a finalized sentence without ongoing appeals or additional charges. Castillo remains imprisoned on an 11-year-plus sentence for conspiracy tied to his December 2022 attempt to dissolve Congress, alongside extended preventive detention in separate corruption cases running into 2027. The incoming administration of Keiko Fujimori, scheduled to take office in late July 2026, has shown no inclination to grant clemency or amnesty for offenses against the constitutional order. Legislative efforts for broader amnesties have stalled, leaving no viable near-term path for release before year-end.