**Recent rejection of Castillo’s pardon request by Peru’s Ministry of Justice has solidified trader expectations against a 2026 clemency.** In late July 2026, the Presidential Pardons Commission unanimously declared inadmissible the formal request submitted on his behalf, citing failure to specify the type of grace (pardon, commutation, or clemency) and noncompliance with commission regulations. This decision under interim President José María Balcázar closed the window for any release before the end of the current term. Castillo remains imprisoned following his November 2025 conviction and 11.5-year sentence for rebellion and conspiracy against the state tied to the 2022 attempted dissolution of Congress. No subsequent legislative or executive actions have emerged to override the commission’s ruling or alter procedural barriers. With only months left in 2026 and no scheduled political catalysts—such as new legislation, a change in administration, or successful appeals—capable of shifting the trajectory before year-end, the 82% implied probability for “No” reflects the current institutional and legal constraints on presidential clemency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
18% chance
$42,885 Vol.
$42,885 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
18% chance
$42,885 Vol.
$42,885 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Recent rejection of Castillo’s pardon request by Peru’s Ministry of Justice has solidified trader expectations against a 2026 clemency.** In late July 2026, the Presidential Pardons Commission unanimously declared inadmissible the formal request submitted on his behalf, citing failure to specify the type of grace (pardon, commutation, or clemency) and noncompliance with commission regulations. This decision under interim President José María Balcázar closed the window for any release before the end of the current term.
Castillo remains imprisoned following his November 2025 conviction and 11.5-year sentence for rebellion and conspiracy against the state tied to the 2022 attempted dissolution of Congress. No subsequent legislative or executive actions have emerged to override the commission’s ruling or alter procedural barriers. With only months left in 2026 and no scheduled political catalysts—such as new legislation, a change in administration, or successful appeals—capable of shifting the trajectory before year-end, the 82% implied probability for “No” reflects the current institutional and legal constraints on presidential clemency.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Volume
$42,885End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Recent rejection of Castillo’s pardon request by Peru’s Ministry of Justice has solidified trader expectations against a 2026 clemency.** In late July 2026, the Presidential Pardons Commission unanimously declared inadmissible the formal request submitted on his behalf, citing failure to specify the type of grace (pardon, commutation, or clemency) and noncompliance with commission regulations. This decision under interim President José María Balcázar closed the window for any release before the end of the current term.
Castillo remains imprisoned following his November 2025 conviction and 11.5-year sentence for rebellion and conspiracy against the state tied to the 2022 attempted dissolution of Congress. No subsequent legislative or executive actions have emerged to override the commission’s ruling or alter procedural barriers. With only months left in 2026 and no scheduled political catalysts—such as new legislation, a change in administration, or successful appeals—capable of shifting the trajectory before year-end, the 82% implied probability for “No” reflects the current institutional and legal constraints on presidential clemency.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$42,885End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent rejection of Castillo’s pardon request by Peru’s Ministry of Justice has solidified trader expectations against a 2026 clemency.** In late July 2026, the Presidential Pardons Commission unanimously declared inadmissible the formal request submitted on his behalf, citing failure to specify the type of grace (pardon, commutation, or clemency) and noncompliance with commission regulations. This decision under interim President José María Balcázar closed the window for any release before the end of the current term. Castillo remains imprisoned following his November 2025 conviction and 11.5-year sentence for rebellion and conspiracy against the state tied to the 2022 attempted dissolution of Congress. No subsequent legislative or executive actions have emerged to override the commission’s ruling or alter procedural barriers. With only months left in 2026 and no scheduled political catalysts—such as new legislation, a change in administration, or successful appeals—capable of shifting the trajectory before year-end, the 82% implied probability for “No” reflects the current institutional and legal constraints on presidential clemency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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