Recent rejections by Peru’s Ministry of Justice have reinforced trader expectations that former President Pedro Castillo will not receive a presidential pardon before the end of 2026. In July 2026 the Presidential Pardons Commission unanimously ruled inadmissible a formal request submitted on his behalf, citing failure to meet basic regulatory requirements. The incoming administration under President Keiko Fujimori has since stated that any such pardon is legally and politically “impossible” under present conditions, with officials framing related protests as attempts at blackmail. Castillo’s November 2025 conviction for rebellion and the resulting 11.5-year sentence further distance the case from routine clemency precedents. These confirmed institutional actions and the current government’s explicit position anchor the 72.5% probability assigned to “No.”
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
16% chance
$42,860 Vol.
$42,860 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
16% chance
$42,860 Vol.
$42,860 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent rejections by Peru’s Ministry of Justice have reinforced trader expectations that former President Pedro Castillo will not receive a presidential pardon before the end of 2026. In July 2026 the Presidential Pardons Commission unanimously ruled inadmissible a formal request submitted on his behalf, citing failure to meet basic regulatory requirements. The incoming administration under President Keiko Fujimori has since stated that any such pardon is legally and politically “impossible” under present conditions, with officials framing related protests as attempts at blackmail. Castillo’s November 2025 conviction for rebellion and the resulting 11.5-year sentence further distance the case from routine clemency precedents. These confirmed institutional actions and the current government’s explicit position anchor the 72.5% probability assigned to “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Volume
$42,860End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent rejections by Peru’s Ministry of Justice have reinforced trader expectations that former President Pedro Castillo will not receive a presidential pardon before the end of 2026. In July 2026 the Presidential Pardons Commission unanimously ruled inadmissible a formal request submitted on his behalf, citing failure to meet basic regulatory requirements. The incoming administration under President Keiko Fujimori has since stated that any such pardon is legally and politically “impossible” under present conditions, with officials framing related protests as attempts at blackmail. Castillo’s November 2025 conviction for rebellion and the resulting 11.5-year sentence further distance the case from routine clemency precedents. These confirmed institutional actions and the current government’s explicit position anchor the 72.5% probability assigned to “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$42,860End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent rejections by Peru’s Ministry of Justice have reinforced trader expectations that former President Pedro Castillo will not receive a presidential pardon before the end of 2026. In July 2026 the Presidential Pardons Commission unanimously ruled inadmissible a formal request submitted on his behalf, citing failure to meet basic regulatory requirements. The incoming administration under President Keiko Fujimori has since stated that any such pardon is legally and politically “impossible” under present conditions, with officials framing related protests as attempts at blackmail. Castillo’s November 2025 conviction for rebellion and the resulting 11.5-year sentence further distance the case from routine clemency precedents. These confirmed institutional actions and the current government’s explicit position anchor the 72.5% probability assigned to “No.”
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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