The 2026 NFL Week 1 rushing touchdowns market remains tightly bunched because committee backfields, injury-driven rotations, and evenly distributed goal-line opportunities spread implied probability across dozens of candidates. Jaylen Warren enters as the slight market leader after securing the primary Steelers role opposite Rico Dowdle in a favorable script against Atlanta, while Woody Marks benefits from David Montgomery’s early-down and red-zone work in Houston’s improved offense versus Buffalo’s porous run defense. Comparable edges appear for James Cook, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, and several rookies or change-of-pace backs whose teams project heavy usage or favorable matchups, yet no player holds a dominant share of touches or confirmed goal-line monopoly. Late injury reports, final depth-chart tweaks, and game-script variability further cap any single outcome, leaving trader consensus fragmented.