Skip to main content
icon for Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?
World·RBA

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?

icon for Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?
World·RBA

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?

Jun 16

Aug 11

Jun 16

Aug 11

No Change 86%

Increase 18%

Decrease <1%

Polymarket

$25,472 Vol.

No Change 86%

Increase 18%

Decrease <1%

Polymarket

$25,472 Vol.

Decrease

$7,827 Vol.

<1%

No Change

$8,800 Vol.

78%

Increase

$8,845 Vol.

25%

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.The Reserve Bank of Australia’s May 5 decision to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35 percent, driven by elevated inflation and higher fuel prices from Middle East tensions, has anchored trader expectations for no further change at the June 16 meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this recent tightening cycle, with the 81 percent probability of a hold consistent with cooling wage growth and the bank’s updated forecasts signaling that prior hikes are still transmitting through the economy. While a minority of economists anticipate another 25-basis-point increase if underlying CPI remains above target, the low 0.3 percent chance of a cut underscores limited downside risks in the near term. Futures pricing and central-bank guidance point to a closely watched data window ahead of the June announcement, where any surprise in May inflation or labor-market figures could modestly shift probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html

This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Volume
$25,472
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.The Reserve Bank of Australia’s May 5 decision to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35 percent, driven by elevated inflation and higher fuel prices from Middle East tensions, has anchored trader expectations for no further change at the June 16 meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this recent tightening cycle, with the 81 percent probability of a hold consistent with cooling wage growth and the bank’s updated forecasts signaling that prior hikes are still transmitting through the economy. While a minority of economists anticipate another 25-basis-point increase if underlying CPI remains above target, the low 0.3 percent chance of a cut underscores limited downside risks in the near term. Futures pricing and central-bank guidance point to a closely watched data window ahead of the June announcement, where any surprise in May inflation or labor-market figures could modestly shift probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html

This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Volume
$25,472
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.

Related

icon for Solana Up or Down

Solana Up or Down

50%
Up
icon for Dogecoin Up or Down

Dogecoin Up or Down

50%
Up
icon for Bitcoin Up or Down

Bitcoin Up or Down

50%
Up

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No Change" at 79%, followed by "Increase" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 79¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?" has generated $25.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?" is "No Change" at 79%, meaning the market assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Increase" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.