**Persistent inflation above the RBA’s 2–3% target, combined with hawkish central bank communications, underpins the 72.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November 2–3 meeting.** Headline and trimmed-mean inflation remain near 3.5–3.6%, with upside risks materializing from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, strong domestic demand, and capacity constraints. The cash rate currently stands at 4.35% after 75 basis points of tightening earlier in 2026. Recent statements from Governor Bullock and Assistant Governor Hunter have reinforced a low tolerance for further inflation surprises, prompting major banks to price a likely 25 basis point hike at the September 29 meeting. This leaves November pricing reflecting a conditional hold once September-quarter CPI data arrives on October 28, with only a 28.3% chance of an additional 25 basis point increase priced in. Traders are monitoring labor-market slack and global commodity trends for any shift in the implied rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 73%
25 bps increase 28.2%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$50,942 Vol.
$50,942 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
73%
25 bps increase
28%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 73%
25 bps increase 28.2%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$50,942 Vol.
$50,942 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$3,210 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$3,695 Vol.
1%
No change
$27,636 Vol.
73%
25 bps increase
$13,578 Vol.
28%
50+ bps increase
$2,823 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent inflation above the RBA’s 2–3% target, combined with hawkish central bank communications, underpins the 72.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November 2–3 meeting.** Headline and trimmed-mean inflation remain near 3.5–3.6%, with upside risks materializing from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, strong domestic demand, and capacity constraints. The cash rate currently stands at 4.35% after 75 basis points of tightening earlier in 2026. Recent statements from Governor Bullock and Assistant Governor Hunter have reinforced a low tolerance for further inflation surprises, prompting major banks to price a likely 25 basis point hike at the September 29 meeting. This leaves November pricing reflecting a conditional hold once September-quarter CPI data arrives on October 28, with only a 28.3% chance of an additional 25 basis point increase priced in. Traders are monitoring labor-market slack and global commodity trends for any shift in the implied rate path.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ET
Volume
$50,942End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent inflation above the RBA’s 2–3% target, combined with hawkish central bank communications, underpins the 72.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November 2–3 meeting.** Headline and trimmed-mean inflation remain near 3.5–3.6%, with upside risks materializing from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, strong domestic demand, and capacity constraints. The cash rate currently stands at 4.35% after 75 basis points of tightening earlier in 2026. Recent statements from Governor Bullock and Assistant Governor Hunter have reinforced a low tolerance for further inflation surprises, prompting major banks to price a likely 25 basis point hike at the September 29 meeting. This leaves November pricing reflecting a conditional hold once September-quarter CPI data arrives on October 28, with only a 28.3% chance of an additional 25 basis point increase priced in. Traders are monitoring labor-market slack and global commodity trends for any shift in the implied rate path.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$50,942End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation above the RBA’s 2–3% target, combined with hawkish central bank communications, underpins the 72.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November 2–3 meeting.** Headline and trimmed-mean inflation remain near 3.5–3.6%, with upside risks materializing from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, strong domestic demand, and capacity constraints. The cash rate currently stands at 4.35% after 75 basis points of tightening earlier in 2026. Recent statements from Governor Bullock and Assistant Governor Hunter have reinforced a low tolerance for further inflation surprises, prompting major banks to price a likely 25 basis point hike at the September 29 meeting. This leaves November pricing reflecting a conditional hold once September-quarter CPI data arrives on October 28, with only a 28.3% chance of an additional 25 basis point increase priced in. Traders are monitoring labor-market slack and global commodity trends for any shift in the implied rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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