Recent August 2026 employment data, showing nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1 percent with labor force participation rebounding to 61.6 percent, anchors trader expectations for September. This resilience amid moderating hiring trends and stable wage growth supports the market-implied odds clustering around 4.1 percent (34 percent probability) and 4.2 percent (26 percent), reflecting uncertainty over whether seasonal adjustments or subdued labor supply will keep the rate unchanged versus a modest uptick. Broader indicators, including prior months near 4.1–4.3 percent and analyst forecasts averaging near 4.3 percent by quarter-end, highlight the tight range. The October 2 release will resolve the market, with any surprise in jobless claims or participation potentially shifting the narrow spread between leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.1% 35%
4.2% 26%
4.0% 17%
4.3% 12%
NEW
NEW
Oct 2, 2026
≤3.8%
4%
3.9%
8%
4.0%
17%
4.1%
35%
4.2%
26%
4.3%
12%
4.4%
5%
4.5%
6%
≥4.6%
4%
4.1% 35%
4.2% 26%
4.0% 17%
4.3% 12%
NEW
NEW
Oct 2, 2026
≤3.8%
$609 Vol.
4%
3.9%
$105 Vol.
8%
4.0%
$62 Vol.
17%
4.1%
$697 Vol.
35%
4.2%
$87 Vol.
26%
4.3%
$62 Vol.
12%
4.4%
$176 Vol.
5%
4.5%
$505 Vol.
6%
≥4.6%
$505 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August 2026 employment data, showing nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1 percent with labor force participation rebounding to 61.6 percent, anchors trader expectations for September. This resilience amid moderating hiring trends and stable wage growth supports the market-implied odds clustering around 4.1 percent (34 percent probability) and 4.2 percent (26 percent), reflecting uncertainty over whether seasonal adjustments or subdued labor supply will keep the rate unchanged versus a modest uptick. Broader indicators, including prior months near 4.1–4.3 percent and analyst forecasts averaging near 4.3 percent by quarter-end, highlight the tight range. The October 2 release will resolve the market, with any surprise in jobless claims or participation potentially shifting the narrow spread between leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,810End Date
Oct 2, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August 2026 employment data, showing nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1 percent with labor force participation rebounding to 61.6 percent, anchors trader expectations for September. This resilience amid moderating hiring trends and stable wage growth supports the market-implied odds clustering around 4.1 percent (34 percent probability) and 4.2 percent (26 percent), reflecting uncertainty over whether seasonal adjustments or subdued labor supply will keep the rate unchanged versus a modest uptick. Broader indicators, including prior months near 4.1–4.3 percent and analyst forecasts averaging near 4.3 percent by quarter-end, highlight the tight range. The October 2 release will resolve the market, with any surprise in jobless claims or participation potentially shifting the narrow spread between leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$2,810End Date
Oct 2, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August 2026 employment data, showing nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1 percent with labor force participation rebounding to 61.6 percent, anchors trader expectations for September. This resilience amid moderating hiring trends and stable wage growth supports the market-implied odds clustering around 4.1 percent (34 percent probability) and 4.2 percent (26 percent), reflecting uncertainty over whether seasonal adjustments or subdued labor supply will keep the rate unchanged versus a modest uptick. Broader indicators, including prior months near 4.1–4.3 percent and analyst forecasts averaging near 4.3 percent by quarter-end, highlight the tight range. The October 2 release will resolve the market, with any surprise in jobless claims or participation potentially shifting the narrow spread between leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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