Tesla shares traded near $310–313 following the July 22 Q2 2026 earnings release, which delivered a 26% revenue beat to $28.2 billion yet produced a sharp profit miss with adjusted EPS of $0.33 versus $0.51 expected, a 57% drop in operating income, and negative free cash flow of $1.09 billion amid elevated capital expenditures. Margin compression, reduced regulatory credit income, and heavy spending on robotaxi, Optimus, and next-generation platforms weighed on sentiment, triggering multiple analyst target reductions and a broad post-earnings selloff that erased prior gains. With the July 31 weekly close now only days away, the tightly clustered market-implied odds across the $290–$335 bands reflect this earnings-driven uncertainty and elevated short-term volatility rather than any single directional catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$290 45%
>$335 45%
$305-$310 13%
$310-$315 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
<$290
45%
$290-$295
12%
$295-$300
12%
$300-$305
13%
$305-$310
13%
$310-$315
13%
$315-$320
12%
$320-$325
13%
$325-$330
12%
$330-$335
11%
>$335
45%
<$290 45%
>$335 45%
$305-$310 13%
$310-$315 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
<$290
$0 Vol.
45%
$290-$295
$0 Vol.
12%
$295-$300
$0 Vol.
12%
$300-$305
$0 Vol.
13%
$305-$310
$0 Vol.
13%
$310-$315
$0 Vol.
13%
$315-$320
$0 Vol.
12%
$320-$325
$0 Vol.
13%
$325-$330
$0 Vol.
12%
$330-$335
$0 Vol.
11%
>$335
$0 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD.Tesla shares traded near $310–313 following the July 22 Q2 2026 earnings release, which delivered a 26% revenue beat to $28.2 billion yet produced a sharp profit miss with adjusted EPS of $0.33 versus $0.51 expected, a 57% drop in operating income, and negative free cash flow of $1.09 billion amid elevated capital expenditures. Margin compression, reduced regulatory credit income, and heavy spending on robotaxi, Optimus, and next-generation platforms weighed on sentiment, triggering multiple analyst target reductions and a broad post-earnings selloff that erased prior gains. With the July 31 weekly close now only days away, the tightly clustered market-implied odds across the $290–$335 bands reflect this earnings-driven uncertainty and elevated short-term volatility rather than any single directional catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD.Tesla shares traded near $310–313 following the July 22 Q2 2026 earnings release, which delivered a 26% revenue beat to $28.2 billion yet produced a sharp profit miss with adjusted EPS of $0.33 versus $0.51 expected, a 57% drop in operating income, and negative free cash flow of $1.09 billion amid elevated capital expenditures. Margin compression, reduced regulatory credit income, and heavy spending on robotaxi, Optimus, and next-generation platforms weighed on sentiment, triggering multiple analyst target reductions and a broad post-earnings selloff that erased prior gains. With the July 31 weekly close now only days away, the tightly clustered market-implied odds across the $290–$335 bands reflect this earnings-driven uncertainty and elevated short-term volatility rather than any single directional catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD.
Volume
$0End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tesla shares traded near $310–313 following the July 22 Q2 2026 earnings release, which delivered a 26% revenue beat to $28.2 billion yet produced a sharp profit miss with adjusted EPS of $0.33 versus $0.51 expected, a 57% drop in operating income, and negative free cash flow of $1.09 billion amid elevated capital expenditures. Margin compression, reduced regulatory credit income, and heavy spending on robotaxi, Optimus, and next-generation platforms weighed on sentiment, triggering multiple analyst target reductions and a broad post-earnings selloff that erased prior gains. With the July 31 weekly close now only days away, the tightly clustered market-implied odds across the $290–$335 bands reflect this earnings-driven uncertainty and elevated short-term volatility rather than any single directional catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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