The U.S. has recognized Delcy Rodríguez as Venezuela’s interim leader since Nicolás Maduro’s January 2026 removal and has prioritized stability, sanctions relief, oil-sector cooperation, and gradual institutional talks with a faction of the opposition under Dinorah Figuera. The Trump administration has repeatedly sidelined María Corina Machado, discouraging her return from exile, describing related efforts as political distractions, and excluding her from U.S.-backed negotiations aimed at eventual elections. These steps reflect a preference for working through existing structures rather than installing the exiled opposition figure, whose public profile and calls for rapid transition have created friction. With roughly three months remaining until the December 31 deadline and no scheduled policy reversal, traders assign only a slim chance that diplomatic recognition shifts to Machado before year-end. A sudden breakdown in the Rodríguez channel or major external pressure could still alter the timeline, though no such catalyst has materialized.