**Ongoing US sanctions and a naval blockade targeting Iranian oil exports have sharply curtailed Tehran’s foreign-currency inflows, driving the rial to successive record lows above 2.5 million per dollar in late September.** The currency’s rapid depreciation—accelerating from around 2.2 million earlier in the month—reflects sustained economic pressure amid the Middle East conflict that began in February. Indirect talks mediated by Qatar on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing restrictions continue without a breakthrough, while oil loadings and revenues remain heavily constrained. Traders price the highest probability (72%) on the 2.8 million+ range at end-October because these revenue and liquidity pressures show no near-term reversal, though any diplomatic progress could still alter the trajectory within the short resolution window.