**Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment at 56% implied probability for the second-biggest 2026 opening weekend due to its explosive early presales and industry tracking projecting a $260–300 million domestic debut.** Spider-Man: Brand New Day already claimed the all-time record at $360 million, leaving Doomsday positioned to slot comfortably into second place ahead of Toy Story 5’s $160 million launch and The Odyssey’s $124 million start. Strong holiday timing, ensemble Marvel appeal, and presale momentum that outpaces prior benchmarks underpin the consensus, while lower odds on already-released titles reflect their locked-in results. The December 18 release remains the key near-term catalyst that could solidify or shift these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday 56%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 44%
Toy Story 5 <1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$134,213 Vol.
$134,213 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
56%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
44%
Toy Story 5
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
Avengers: Doomsday 56%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 44%
Toy Story 5 <1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$134,213 Vol.
$134,213 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
$54,620 Vol.
56%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$66,860 Vol.
44%
Toy Story 5
$2,679 Vol.
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$482 Vol.
<1%
Dune: Messiah
$8,291 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment at 56% implied probability for the second-biggest 2026 opening weekend due to its explosive early presales and industry tracking projecting a $260–300 million domestic debut.** Spider-Man: Brand New Day already claimed the all-time record at $360 million, leaving Doomsday positioned to slot comfortably into second place ahead of Toy Story 5’s $160 million launch and The Odyssey’s $124 million start. Strong holiday timing, ensemble Marvel appeal, and presale momentum that outpaces prior benchmarks underpin the consensus, while lower odds on already-released titles reflect their locked-in results. The December 18 release remains the key near-term catalyst that could solidify or shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ET
Volume
$134,213End Date
Feb 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment at 56% implied probability for the second-biggest 2026 opening weekend due to its explosive early presales and industry tracking projecting a $260–300 million domestic debut.** Spider-Man: Brand New Day already claimed the all-time record at $360 million, leaving Doomsday positioned to slot comfortably into second place ahead of Toy Story 5’s $160 million launch and The Odyssey’s $124 million start. Strong holiday timing, ensemble Marvel appeal, and presale momentum that outpaces prior benchmarks underpin the consensus, while lower odds on already-released titles reflect their locked-in results. The December 18 release remains the key near-term catalyst that could solidify or shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$134,213End Date
Feb 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment at 56% implied probability for the second-biggest 2026 opening weekend due to its explosive early presales and industry tracking projecting a $260–300 million domestic debut.** Spider-Man: Brand New Day already claimed the all-time record at $360 million, leaving Doomsday positioned to slot comfortably into second place ahead of Toy Story 5’s $160 million launch and The Odyssey’s $124 million start. Strong holiday timing, ensemble Marvel appeal, and presale momentum that outpaces prior benchmarks underpin the consensus, while lower odds on already-released titles reflect their locked-in results. The December 18 release remains the key near-term catalyst that could solidify or shift these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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