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icon for Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

icon for Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Avengers: Doomsday 75%

Spider-Man: Brand New Day 18%

Toy Story 5 3.1%

Dune: Messiah 1.8%

Polymarket

$1,571,236 Vol.

Avengers: Doomsday 75%

Spider-Man: Brand New Day 18%

Toy Story 5 3.1%

Dune: Messiah 1.8%

Polymarket

$1,571,236 Vol.

Avengers: Doomsday

$118,552 Vol.

75%

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

$43,475 Vol.

18%

Toy Story 5

$181,713 Vol.

3%

Dune: Messiah

$85,145 Vol.

2%

The Odyssey

$146,947 Vol.

1%

Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu

$34,991 Vol.

1%

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

$59,114 Vol.

<1%

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

$18,306 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday commands 74.5% implied probability as the frontrunner for 2026’s biggest opening weekend because its MCU crossover status, Robert Downey Jr. reprising a marquee role, and Russo brothers direction generate unmatched pre-release anticipation and presale momentum. Summer releases like Spider-Man: Brand New Day hold 17.5% on the strength of Spider-Man’s proven domestic draw and July 31 timing, yet trail due to less event-level scale. Toy Story 5’s 3.1% reflects reliable family appeal ahead of its June 19 date but lacks superhero tentpole firepower, while Dune: Messiah, The Odyssey, and Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu sit below 2% amid narrower audience expectations. Recent confirmation of Doomsday’s December 18 holiday slot has reinforced its positioning without shifting other contenders materially.

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.

If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$1,571,236
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday commands 74.5% implied probability as the frontrunner for 2026’s biggest opening weekend because its MCU crossover status, Robert Downey Jr. reprising a marquee role, and Russo brothers direction generate unmatched pre-release anticipation and presale momentum. Summer releases like Spider-Man: Brand New Day hold 17.5% on the strength of Spider-Man’s proven domestic draw and July 31 timing, yet trail due to less event-level scale. Toy Story 5’s 3.1% reflects reliable family appeal ahead of its June 19 date but lacks superhero tentpole firepower, while Dune: Messiah, The Odyssey, and Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu sit below 2% amid narrower audience expectations. Recent confirmation of Doomsday’s December 18 holiday slot has reinforced its positioning without shifting other contenders materially.

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.

If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$1,571,236
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Avengers: Doomsday" at 75%, followed by "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?" has generated $1.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?" is "Avengers: Doomsday" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.