The closely bunched implied probabilities for Joshua Van and Manel Kape at 43.5% alongside current champion Alexandre Pantoja at 40.5% reflect the flyweight division’s depth and rapid ranking volatility through 2026. Multiple contenders maintain strong momentum from recent title challenges and strong performances, while factors such as potential injuries, stylistic matchups, and opportunities in upcoming bouts create several realistic paths to the belt. This uncertainty among top-ranked fighters, combined with the division’s history of upsets, sustains a wide range of outcomes in trader consensus for the end-of-year champion.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlexandre Pantoja 50%
Joshua Van 46%
Tatsuro Taira 34.0%
Steve Erceg 1.0%
$14,774 Vol.
$14,774 Vol.
Alexandre Pantoja
41%
Joshua Van
46%
Tatsuro Taira
22%
Steve Erceg
1%
Brandon Moreno
<1%
Tim Elliott
<1%
Asu Almabayev
<1%
Amir Albazi
<1%
Brandon Royval
<1%
Manel Kape
39%
Kyoji Horiguchi
35%
Alexandre Pantoja 50%
Joshua Van 46%
Tatsuro Taira 34.0%
Steve Erceg 1.0%
$14,774 Vol.
$14,774 Vol.
Alexandre Pantoja
41%
Joshua Van
46%
Tatsuro Taira
22%
Steve Erceg
1%
Brandon Moreno
<1%
Tim Elliott
<1%
Asu Almabayev
<1%
Amir Albazi
<1%
Brandon Royval
<1%
Manel Kape
39%
Kyoji Horiguchi
35%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The closely bunched implied probabilities for Joshua Van and Manel Kape at 43.5% alongside current champion Alexandre Pantoja at 40.5% reflect the flyweight division’s depth and rapid ranking volatility through 2026. Multiple contenders maintain strong momentum from recent title challenges and strong performances, while factors such as potential injuries, stylistic matchups, and opportunities in upcoming bouts create several realistic paths to the belt. This uncertainty among top-ranked fighters, combined with the division’s history of upsets, sustains a wide range of outcomes in trader consensus for the end-of-year champion.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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