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Sports·FIFA World Cup

World Cup: Türkiye Stage of Elimination

icon for World Cup: Türkiye Stage of Elimination
Sports·FIFA World Cup

World Cup: Türkiye Stage of Elimination

Round of 32 41%

Round of 16 30%

Group Stage 21%

Quarterfinals 12%

Polymarket
NEW

Round of 32 41%

Round of 16 30%

Group Stage 21%

Quarterfinals 12%

Polymarket
NEW

Round of 32

$192 Vol.

34%

Round of 16

$90 Vol.

30%

Group Stage

$706 Vol.

21%

Quarterfinals

$5 Vol.

12%

Semifinals

$51 Vol.

10%

Champion

$89 Vol.

3%

Final

$91 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Türkiye is eliminated. If Türkiye wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Türkiye is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Türkiye based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Türkiye enters the 2026 FIFA World Cup in Group D alongside the United States, Paraguay, and Australia, with their campaign opening against the Socceroos on June 13. Traders price Round of 16 and Round of 32 outcomes highest because the squad—built around Arda Güler, Kenan Yıldız, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, and coach Vincenzo Montella’s high-pressing setup—boasts superior depth and recent qualifying momentum compared with two of its group opponents. Strong attacking returns in UEFA qualifying and back-to-back major-tournament appearances underpin expectations of advancement, yet the absence of a proven striker and the team’s historical variability cap deeper-run probabilities. Low champion and semifinal shares reflect the broader field’s strength and Turkey’s 100-1 outsider status overall, while the elevated “Other” share captures the most probable exit window after a competitive group-stage showing.

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Türkiye is eliminated. If Türkiye wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'.
If Türkiye is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Türkiye based on the best available official information.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,222
End Date
Jul 19, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 7, 2026, 12:49 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.fifa.com/en/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Türkiye is eliminated. If Türkiye wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Türkiye is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Türkiye based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Türkiye is eliminated. If Türkiye wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Türkiye is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Türkiye based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Türkiye enters the 2026 FIFA World Cup in Group D alongside the United States, Paraguay, and Australia, with their campaign opening against the Socceroos on June 13. Traders price Round of 16 and Round of 32 outcomes highest because the squad—built around Arda Güler, Kenan Yıldız, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, and coach Vincenzo Montella’s high-pressing setup—boasts superior depth and recent qualifying momentum compared with two of its group opponents. Strong attacking returns in UEFA qualifying and back-to-back major-tournament appearances underpin expectations of advancement, yet the absence of a proven striker and the team’s historical variability cap deeper-run probabilities. Low champion and semifinal shares reflect the broader field’s strength and Turkey’s 100-1 outsider status overall, while the elevated “Other” share captures the most probable exit window after a competitive group-stage showing.

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Türkiye is eliminated. If Türkiye wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'.
If Türkiye is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Türkiye based on the best available official information.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,222
End Date
Jul 19, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 7, 2026, 12:49 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.fifa.com/en/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Türkiye is eliminated. If Türkiye wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Türkiye is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Türkiye based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"World Cup: Türkiye Stage of Elimination" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Round of 32" at 34%, followed by "Round of 16" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"World Cup: Türkiye Stage of Elimination" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 7, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "World Cup: Türkiye Stage of Elimination," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "World Cup: Türkiye Stage of Elimination" is "Round of 32" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Round of 16" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "World Cup: Türkiye Stage of Elimination" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.