The near-certain trader consensus around a 97 percent probability that Bill Gates will not face criminal charges by June 30 stems from the complete absence of any active indictments, investigations, or prosecutorial actions by U.S. or foreign authorities. Credible reporting shows only ongoing civil litigation in limited jurisdictions, none of which has produced criminal referrals or evidence of imminent charges. Historical patterns of similar claims—frequently tied to misinformation about vaccines or philanthropy—have consistently been debunked as misrepresentations of civil matters rather than criminal proceedings. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include the sudden escalation of an existing civil case into formal charges or the emergence of new evidence triggering a previously undisclosed inquiry, though no such developments have surfaced in official records or statements through mid-May.