**Recent volatility in Tesla shares and the newly public SpaceX stock has created tight clustering around 40% implied probabilities across Musk’s net-worth bins for June 30.** Tesla’s market cap near $1.52 trillion has faced a multi-week decline that recently erased roughly $50 billion from Musk’s fortune, while SpaceX’s June IPO—valuing the company above $2 trillion—lifted his holdings sharply and briefly pushed estimates above $1.3 trillion. Bloomberg’s index showed a $56 billion single-day swing as of June 18 amid ongoing trading in both names. With only days remaining until resolution, trader consensus prices in wide dispersion driven by daily equity moves rather than new fundamentals, leaving outcomes from sub-$1 trillion to $1.5 trillion+ essentially equidistant in market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$1.10-$1.20T 80%
$1.20-$1.30T 80%
$1.30-$1.40T 80%
$1.40-$1.50T 80%
<1,00 T$
40%
$1.00-$1.10T
41%
$1.10-$1.20T
80%
$1.20-$1.30T
80%
$1.30-$1.40T
80%
$1.40-$1.50T
80%
$1.50T+
41%
$1.10-$1.20T 80%
$1.20-$1.30T 80%
$1.30-$1.40T 80%
$1.40-$1.50T 80%
<1,00 T$
40%
$1.00-$1.10T
41%
$1.10-$1.20T
80%
$1.20-$1.30T
80%
$1.30-$1.40T
80%
$1.40-$1.50T
80%
$1.50T+
41%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for June 30, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 17, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for June 30, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent volatility in Tesla shares and the newly public SpaceX stock has created tight clustering around 40% implied probabilities across Musk’s net-worth bins for June 30.** Tesla’s market cap near $1.52 trillion has faced a multi-week decline that recently erased roughly $50 billion from Musk’s fortune, while SpaceX’s June IPO—valuing the company above $2 trillion—lifted his holdings sharply and briefly pushed estimates above $1.3 trillion. Bloomberg’s index showed a $56 billion single-day swing as of June 18 amid ongoing trading in both names. With only days remaining until resolution, trader consensus prices in wide dispersion driven by daily equity moves rather than new fundamentals, leaving outcomes from sub-$1 trillion to $1.5 trillion+ essentially equidistant in market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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