The dominant 93% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause in the April–July FOMC cycle stems primarily from the Federal Reserve’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, reinforced by May’s hotter-than-expected CPI print that elevated inflation risks and shifted derivatives pricing toward a possible hike by year-end. Persistent price pressures, combined with Middle East geopolitical uncertainty, have prompted traders to price in a cautious monetary-policy stance across the June and July meetings, consistent with recent FOMC communications emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks to the dual mandate. This positioning aligns with futures markets showing minimal odds of a 25-basis-point cut before late 2027. A sharp moderation in incoming inflation readings or a material deterioration in labor-market indicators could still reopen the door to earlier easing, though such shifts would need to overcome the current hawkish tilt.