Traders have assigned a 98.2% implied probability to three consecutive pauses at the March, May, and June FOMC meetings, driven by persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market that has kept unemployment near historic lows. Recent employment reports and wage data have reinforced expectations that the federal funds rate will remain in its current range, consistent with the Fed’s communications stressing patience over premature easing. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus view that economic conditions do not yet warrant a shift. An unexpected softening in payrolls or a sharper-than-forecast decline in core CPI could still prompt a reassessment of the rate path before the June decision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPause–pause–pause 98.2%
Pause–Pause–Baisse 1.3%
Autre <1%
$1,106,006 Vol.
$1,106,006 Vol.
17 juin 2026
Pause–pause–pause
98%
Pause–Pause–Baisse
1%
Autre
1%
Pause–pause–pause 98.2%
Pause–Pause–Baisse 1.3%
Autre <1%
$1,106,006 Vol.
$1,106,006 Vol.
17 juin 2026
Pause–pause–pause
$63,672 Vol.
98%
Pause–Pause–Baisse
$42,453 Vol.
1%
Autre
$254,539 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders have assigned a 98.2% implied probability to three consecutive pauses at the March, May, and June FOMC meetings, driven by persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market that has kept unemployment near historic lows. Recent employment reports and wage data have reinforced expectations that the federal funds rate will remain in its current range, consistent with the Fed’s communications stressing patience over premature easing. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus view that economic conditions do not yet warrant a shift. An unexpected softening in payrolls or a sharper-than-forecast decline in core CPI could still prompt a reassessment of the rate path before the June decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,106,006Date de fin
17 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders have assigned a 98.2% implied probability to three consecutive pauses at the March, May, and June FOMC meetings, driven by persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market that has kept unemployment near historic lows. Recent employment reports and wage data have reinforced expectations that the federal funds rate will remain in its current range, consistent with the Fed’s communications stressing patience over premature easing. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus view that economic conditions do not yet warrant a shift. An unexpected softening in payrolls or a sharper-than-forecast decline in core CPI could still prompt a reassessment of the rate path before the June decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$1,106,006Date de fin
17 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders have assigned a 98.2% implied probability to three consecutive pauses at the March, May, and June FOMC meetings, driven by persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market that has kept unemployment near historic lows. Recent employment reports and wage data have reinforced expectations that the federal funds rate will remain in its current range, consistent with the Fed’s communications stressing patience over premature easing. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus view that economic conditions do not yet warrant a shift. An unexpected softening in payrolls or a sharper-than-forecast decline in core CPI could still prompt a reassessment of the rate path before the June decision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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